Evidence Based Basketball - Part 2

Continuing on from last post, the Wolves have put themselves in a pickle with the way they have begun this season, if you truly believe change is coming to Minnesota. With a 3-10 record, (a .231 winning percentage), they are on track to win 18-19 games. To reach the level where most dedicated fans, bloggers and MSM thought they were going to be--somewhere between 30-36 wins--they are going to have to win at around a .400 (28-41) or .500 (35-34) pace in their last 69 games. Not impossible by any stretch of the imagination, but my contention is that there's no evidence that they can or will perform at that level.

Tonight's game with OKC notwithstanding, the Wolves are one win ahead of the 07-08 pace; they were 2-11 on exactly this date last year. They went 20-49 the remainder of last season, roughly a .290 winning percentage. We were sold at the time that one primary reason why they were losing was Randy Foye's injury. If one immedately jumps to 1/29/08--the first game Foye was back in the rotation--the Wolves finished the remaining 38 games 14-24, a .368 winning percentage. Fast forward to the present, with Foye healthy and getting major minutes in the rotation, the Wolves are losing at a similar rate to last year. In fact, what is advertised to be the core of this team really isn't much different than '07-'08. It would suggest that as a long-term solution to the Wolves' problem--Foye ain't it.

This dilemma parallels the current economic crisis we're in, as well as the two approaches offered by our Presidential candidates in the recent election. Either Vice President McHale can tell us that the fundamentals of the franchise are sound, or he can concoct a personnel or coaching stimulus package to jolt the fortunes of the team. He can hope that one or more of his existing "core" (probably someone other than Big Al) dramatically improves their game(s), then continue to add talent primarily via the draft, or he can attempt to change the dynamic by adding or subtracting players or coaches.

If McHale "stays the course", and keeps the team's nucleus and coaching staff in place, there's little evidence to suggest that they will substantially improve. The previous McHale draft choices the last four years--McCants, Foye, Brewer, Smith, Richard, and now Love--have failed to add anything other than mediocrity to the franchise. Brewer and Love can still be considered projects, but the others--particularly McCants and the now departed Richard--have made little positive impact on the team. In Rashad's case particularly, he's approaching "Mini-JR" status; with his selfish, brooding, turnover prone game, he's a growing cancer on this roster. With neither the handle or the mindset to play anything but the "microwave" role, he could be considered one of the Iron Ranger's biggest draft mistakes--right alongside William Avery and Ndudi Ebi.

Jolting the team via coaching change has already been tried, but it's an inevitable tool to be used if the Wolves continue to lose at their current rate. Even though the evidence clearly suggests the main problem is at the strategy and talent acquisition level, Glen Taylor, not Kevin McHale, would need to step in and provide the stimulus jolt. Considering the enormous investment in the current strategy--undersized front court, struggling point guard play, poor defense--for him to step back and actually admit failure at this time and make the systemic changes needed to reverse the franchise fortunes would be remarkable indeed.

The evidence just isn't there...yet.