Evidence Based Basketball

(AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Question: How can a team that shoots 23 more times than the opposition, out rebounds them by 13 (with a staggering 21 to 3 offensive rebound edge), has seven more assists, and hits three more three pointers actually LOSE the game? To a team on the back-end of a two game swing no less? At home. Bueller...anyone?

Answer: when you're the supposedly progressing Minnesota Timberwolves.

As they lurch into December, we're getting closer to the time--on a normal, impatient NBA team--that plug pulling would be necessary. Of course, this is not true with the Wolves. Having watched recordings of all President 43's speeches and campaign appearances, admitting front office mistakes and re-crafting strategy is not part of their operation.

We've already seen two teams--OKC (a team that played much better against the Suns, BTW), and Washington--fire coaches who are decidedly much more accomplished than our current sideline leader. Of course, we've already employed that strategy, having burned through three head coaches (if you count McHale himself) in the last four years. Could Wittman be the fourth? An optimist could say, however, that we have more wins than the Thunder or Wizards. If we win against Oklahoma on Friday(certainly not a given), we will have a winning record in our last five games, which considering the 1-8 start, is a sign of progress, considering two of those wins were against "quality" opponents (Philly, Detroit). After a rough start, we still could hit the 30-35 win stride most thought we would be at this year.

Even though I thought progress was supposed to be measured against last year, and not just the fact they're slightly less awful in the last few games than the first eight... point taken.

As they say on those countless CSI shows, we should look at the evidence. What has really changed from last year? I would argue that the Wolves have changed only incrementally--possibly bordering on excrementally--at best. Right now, the Wolves are on track to win 18-19 games, with their 3-10 start, and .231 winning percentage. Given the "improvement" in the last four games, if they play around .500 ball their remaining 69 games (35-34) they will be at 38 wins, which would be just about the plateau for the Iron Ranger to hang a "Mission Accomplished" banner at Target Center. Bloggers everywhere would be celebrating, given their improved salary cap situation, and the stockpiled draft choices they have coming up. If they go 28-41--around .400--they'll be at 31 wins, the low end of pre-season expectations. Die-hard fans would be cautiously optimistic.

Question: does anyone truly believe the Wolves will win at either of those percentages the rest of the season?

More to come...