Breaking News: Statistician Nate Silver hired to perform Timberwolves Regression Analysis

Nate Silver - FiveThirtyEight.com

(Useless Press Incorporated - November 30, 2008-Minneapolis, MN)

Emerging media and statistical phenom Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight.com) has been hired by the Minnesota Timberwolves to use his regressive analysis technique in assessing the club's current performance.

"I'm not a big believer in stats", said Kevin McHale, Timberwolves VP of Operations. "But I have been very impressed with the accuracy of Nate's work, even though it predicted that my guy [failed Republican candidate John McCain] would lose. So much of this game has changed since I played it. It used to be we put on our shorts, played hard, and won or lost. Now, I think we need an extra edge--in addition to a couple more really great draft picks--to put us over the top. Nate will give us a more precise context for us to do our decision making."

Silver--in town to monitor the Al Franken/Norm Coleman Senatorial recount--was surprised by the Timberwolves offer. "Politics are my bread and butter, but when the call came, I reviewed Minnesota's operation and found that in terms of their performance--both front office and on-court--they are just about as political of an organization as a sports franchise can get, without actually running for anything. I've been impressed with their political spin type approach to every facet of their operation, right down to their broadcasts. The danger of course, is when organizations start to believe their own hype. I think in that respect, I can help. I'll be an honest, factual, information broker. I'll spare no algorithm in trying to figure out how to get this team back on track."

National media and basketball experts, however, remain skeptical. "I've always said stats are for fans", commented Kenny Smith, former NBA player and now TNT basketball analyst. "They may get better information to make decisions, but the problem hasn't been the information, it's the decision makers themselves." Charles Barkely, fellow TNT analyst, agrees. "Minnesota ain't no damn good. I love Kevin McHale, but he's been terrible for this franchise. Glen Taylor needs to ship him off so he can play more golf with me."

Unnamed sources close to the Timberwolves say that Silver will use his technique in a number of operational areas, from the number of times Head Coach Randy Wittman says in post-game comments that "the team just has to play though this" (an indication of the team's lack of confidence in his coaching abilities), to a projected weight of 2008 first round draft pick Kevin Love in 2012, when the first decision regarding his contractual status is due.

"This will be a great stretch for me", admitted Silver. "If I can actually help the Wolves, it will provide me with substantial work between election cycles. I can't wait to get started."

Evidence Based Basketball - Part 2

Continuing on from last post, the Wolves have put themselves in a pickle with the way they have begun this season, if you truly believe change is coming to Minnesota. With a 3-10 record, (a .231 winning percentage), they are on track to win 18-19 games. To reach the level where most dedicated fans, bloggers and MSM thought they were going to be--somewhere between 30-36 wins--they are going to have to win at around a .400 (28-41) or .500 (35-34) pace in their last 69 games. Not impossible by any stretch of the imagination, but my contention is that there's no evidence that they can or will perform at that level.

Tonight's game with OKC notwithstanding, the Wolves are one win ahead of the 07-08 pace; they were 2-11 on exactly this date last year. They went 20-49 the remainder of last season, roughly a .290 winning percentage. We were sold at the time that one primary reason why they were losing was Randy Foye's injury. If one immedately jumps to 1/29/08--the first game Foye was back in the rotation--the Wolves finished the remaining 38 games 14-24, a .368 winning percentage. Fast forward to the present, with Foye healthy and getting major minutes in the rotation, the Wolves are losing at a similar rate to last year. In fact, what is advertised to be the core of this team really isn't much different than '07-'08. It would suggest that as a long-term solution to the Wolves' problem--Foye ain't it.

This dilemma parallels the current economic crisis we're in, as well as the two approaches offered by our Presidential candidates in the recent election. Either Vice President McHale can tell us that the fundamentals of the franchise are sound, or he can concoct a personnel or coaching stimulus package to jolt the fortunes of the team. He can hope that one or more of his existing "core" (probably someone other than Big Al) dramatically improves their game(s), then continue to add talent primarily via the draft, or he can attempt to change the dynamic by adding or subtracting players or coaches.

If McHale "stays the course", and keeps the team's nucleus and coaching staff in place, there's little evidence to suggest that they will substantially improve. The previous McHale draft choices the last four years--McCants, Foye, Brewer, Smith, Richard, and now Love--have failed to add anything other than mediocrity to the franchise. Brewer and Love can still be considered projects, but the others--particularly McCants and the now departed Richard--have made little positive impact on the team. In Rashad's case particularly, he's approaching "Mini-JR" status; with his selfish, brooding, turnover prone game, he's a growing cancer on this roster. With neither the handle or the mindset to play anything but the "microwave" role, he could be considered one of the Iron Ranger's biggest draft mistakes--right alongside William Avery and Ndudi Ebi.

Jolting the team via coaching change has already been tried, but it's an inevitable tool to be used if the Wolves continue to lose at their current rate. Even though the evidence clearly suggests the main problem is at the strategy and talent acquisition level, Glen Taylor, not Kevin McHale, would need to step in and provide the stimulus jolt. Considering the enormous investment in the current strategy--undersized front court, struggling point guard play, poor defense--for him to step back and actually admit failure at this time and make the systemic changes needed to reverse the franchise fortunes would be remarkable indeed.

The evidence just isn't there...yet.

Evidence Based Basketball

(AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Question: How can a team that shoots 23 more times than the opposition, out rebounds them by 13 (with a staggering 21 to 3 offensive rebound edge), has seven more assists, and hits three more three pointers actually LOSE the game? To a team on the back-end of a two game swing no less? At home. Bueller...anyone?

Answer: when you're the supposedly progressing Minnesota Timberwolves.

As they lurch into December, we're getting closer to the time--on a normal, impatient NBA team--that plug pulling would be necessary. Of course, this is not true with the Wolves. Having watched recordings of all President 43's speeches and campaign appearances, admitting front office mistakes and re-crafting strategy is not part of their operation.

We've already seen two teams--OKC (a team that played much better against the Suns, BTW), and Washington--fire coaches who are decidedly much more accomplished than our current sideline leader. Of course, we've already employed that strategy, having burned through three head coaches (if you count McHale himself) in the last four years. Could Wittman be the fourth? An optimist could say, however, that we have more wins than the Thunder or Wizards. If we win against Oklahoma on Friday(certainly not a given), we will have a winning record in our last five games, which considering the 1-8 start, is a sign of progress, considering two of those wins were against "quality" opponents (Philly, Detroit). After a rough start, we still could hit the 30-35 win stride most thought we would be at this year.

Even though I thought progress was supposed to be measured against last year, and not just the fact they're slightly less awful in the last few games than the first eight... point taken.

As they say on those countless CSI shows, we should look at the evidence. What has really changed from last year? I would argue that the Wolves have changed only incrementally--possibly bordering on excrementally--at best. Right now, the Wolves are on track to win 18-19 games, with their 3-10 start, and .231 winning percentage. Given the "improvement" in the last four games, if they play around .500 ball their remaining 69 games (35-34) they will be at 38 wins, which would be just about the plateau for the Iron Ranger to hang a "Mission Accomplished" banner at Target Center. Bloggers everywhere would be celebrating, given their improved salary cap situation, and the stockpiled draft choices they have coming up. If they go 28-41--around .400--they'll be at 31 wins, the low end of pre-season expectations. Die-hard fans would be cautiously optimistic.

Question: does anyone truly believe the Wolves will win at either of those percentages the rest of the season?

More to come...

"We Were Looking Ahead to Minnesota"

Photo by NBAE/Getty Images

(Useless Press Incorporated - Oklahoma City, OK, November 25, 2008)
Matt Barnes hit the winning shot with 21 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and the Phoenix Suns held on to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 99-98, in Oklahoma City. The Suns, playing without Shaquille O'Neal, who was a DNP-Coach's Decision, were behind the majority of the game, playing lackluster ball until late in the fourth quarter.

"Between having no energy and holding Shaq back to rest, we were lucky to win", commented Suns coach Terry Porter. "I think we were looking ahead to Minnesota tomorrow, given the juggernaut they're assembling up there. Look what they did to the Pistons. Even though they took advantage of some pretty cold outside shooting last Sunday, I know they're thinking they've turned the corner, especially Randy Foye. As little as that team has won the last few years, I know I would be selling that if I were Kevin McHale and Randy Wittman. I was up there for a couple of years, so I know how McHale thinks."

Amare Stoudemire led the Suns with 22 points and 7 rebounds, going a +15 for the night. "Yeah, I might have been looking ahead to tomorrow night just a bit," said Stoudemire. "I heard about how the Wolves broadcasters keep saying Al Jefferson torched me last year, and that was the reason why they brought Shaq in. Hopefully, the big fella can go tomorrow night, but if he can't, I guess it's time to see if he can do it again. I've got tickets to First Avenue tomorrow, so I'd like to see--unlike tonight--if we could close them out before the fourth quarter. I like to at least catch part of the show."

Steve Nash,who had 15 assists along with 20 points, is also looking forward to tomorrow's game. "What can I say, it's close to Canada", Nash offered. "I can't wait to see if Randy Foye is for real, after his game against Detroit. I know a lot of fans up there are still upset they gave up Roy to get him, but maybe he's finally coming out. This should be fun."

The game will start at 6pm, Mountain Time, on Fox Sports Arizona.

It Must Be The Footwork

(Photo by Allen Einstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

(Useless Press Incorporated - Monday, November 24, 2008)
Minnesota showed superior footwork in pasting the Pistons 106-80, at the Palace in Auburn Hills, MI Sunday. While actual statements can't be verified, it was rumored by many in the locker room that some in the Wolves brain trust thought they hadn't seen such footwork since the Magic Johnson led Lakers of the 80's. Johnson, in Los Angeles, preparing for an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight, could not be reached for comment.

That the Wolves--identified as perennial league doormats--could pick up their first road win against quality opposition, wasn't lost on the Detroit fans. "First no government bailout, then this", commented Beretta Axhandle, long time Pistons season ticket holder. "Maybe we should get Flip back", he continued, remembering former coach Flip Saunders, fired by the Pistons in the offseason. "Of course, the real problem are Sunday games. I see these guys partying all the time down in the bars Saturday night. They've been losing on Sundays a lot lately, and AI isn't much of a team leader yet."

Back in the Minnesota locker room, comparisons ran amok between the coaching staff and players celebrating their victory. The Wolves' Randy Foye, a much maligned, still developing point guard, broke out for 23 points and 14 assists, going a gaudy + 25 for the night. He immediately was compared to recent departed guard Chauncey Billups (Mr. Big Shot), now playing for Denver. Ryan Gomes--who scored 20 points with seven rebounds, a +16 for the night--was compared to Satch Sanders, the former Boston Celtic, a real "glue guy". Al Jefferson, (18 points, 8 rebounds, +25) who has already been compared to Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone in recent days by Wolves announcer (and Lynx assistant coach) Jim Petersen, was heard attempting to add Nate Thurmond, Willis Reed and Walt Bellamy to his resemblance list. One unnamed Timberwolf official put it this way: "until these guys actually turn the corner, we'd compare them to minor deities if we can sell tickets. Yeah, they stunk against Boston, but just like Senator McCain said in the last days before the election, we've got teams just where we want them. 3 and 9...hell no, we're STREAKING, having won 2 out of the last 3. In these poor economic times, any sign of hope is marketable. We've trying to lower the bar enough to make mediocrity palatable."

In a weekend where OKC Thunder head coach PJ Carlisemo was fired, and increased rumors about Reggie Theus' job in Sacremento are surfacing, the Detroit win gives Coach Randy Wittman a little breathing room. "Yeah, I know Dwayne Casey got fired for inconsistency. And honestly, between our terrible home game against Boston and our win tonight, what could be more inconsistent? But, I've been around here a long time, and folks know me here. Dwayne didn't have the benefit of being on the inside, so while he might have been the victim of a double standard, he DID have KG around. Of course, I did too and I couldn't do anything with him either. I think a few wins a month represents real progress. What's KG doing with his ring this year anyway, beside torching us and picking on the opposition's smaller players? Not much. People in the state know I have the REAL challenge ahead of me. I'll be fine."

The Wolves continue their streak against Phoenix on Wednesday at home, 7pm.

The Pretenders

(Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

Both Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone were embarrassed by Boston last night. As the broadcast of the Celtics trouncing our Woebegoners began, Chief Vindicator (and Lynx assistant coach) Jim Petersen immediately took pains to compare Al Jefferson to the two Hall of Fame centers, saying that Jefferson's footwork was the best he's seen since the Dream; the way Big Al tapped in his first basket reminded him of Moses Malone. In comparing Garnett and Al, I think I actually heard him say Jefferson was going to be in the Hall of Fame one day. I can't be sure I heard that statement correctly however; by that time I was in my kitchen vigorously working my martini shaker. I had a feeling I was going to need a sip or two to watch this "contest". As the game continued, I was correct. So much for comparisons.

It would be easy and I think even a tad classless to rip the Wolves, after all, given that they followed up their first win in November against Philly with such an awful, moribund, amateur, lifeless and confuzzled performance, the team must be beating themselves up. I mean, they dedicated an entire Don Overbeck commerical, hired Verne Troyer's stunt double to pose as a leprechaun, and were able to sucker an announced 19,000 plus into the Target Center, only to watch KG and the Celts waive to our club in their rear view mirror. Talk about your buzzkills! Yep, it would be easy and classless, so I'll do it.

What exactly is it about the Wolves current brain trust that they can't see the damage they are inflicting on their own franchise? Is it the hubris of wealth, the promimently Republican leadership, midwestern stubborness, a combination of the three, or something else? When all is said and done, one day Glen Taylor will probably sell this team at a profit, even with the mounting losses he must be taking on right now. He can continue to sit in the front row at TC, smile, and tell anyone who will listen that while he's not happy with their season start, he has faith that things will turn out. It's the same words our owner's been saying now for years. And, you know, he's right, it WILL turn out...for Glen Taylor. Like a lot of other upper bracket capitalists in this economy, even in failure he'll get paid. At least Taylor is not asking for a bailout...yet.

By the time they get around to actually being successful, the only people left following the Wolves will be a bunch of bloggers (gamely, but incorrectly insisting Kevin Love is a fantastic player), purists who simply appreciate professional basketball at any cost, and the dance team. If you can't get a deal on a ticket, why would a casual fan show up? Last night, you can see when a team is assembled the right way--defense, then offense--how excellence is achieved. Sure, we all expected the Wolves not to make the playoffs this year, but they're regressing--not progressing. This team--night in, night out--can't guard anybody. Even when they traded for an above average low post player to replace Garnett, they're still a predominately jump shooting team who can't get decent shots when pressured. And, when the shooting percentage is .313...in Mafia terms, forget about it. Against quality teams, they can't generate enough defense to keep them in the game until they find some semblence of offense to steal a win.

If anyone thinks once again tanking this year to acquire a Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings in next year's draft is going to solve the problem, well, I have a couple of full price Wolves lower level tickets I'd like to sell you. Who says even if the Wolves COULD draft those players, they would? There's GOT to be another player that McHale will think is better that he'll draft--despite the "Council of Elders" approach they've got working now. At the core of this failure is the inability to assess talent and hire the right coach to implement a vision--any vision.

The one thing this club did right last night was not wait until the fourth quarter to lose the game. For those folks simply wanting to see KG once again in person, they could have left at the start of the fourth quarter, beaten any traffic home, or had a late dinner/nightcap at any one of several fine Warehouse District establishments. That's real consideration, in my book. How exactly is it that a team of veterans on the back end of a two game stint has more energy in the second half than the young'uns with a day off in-between their game? The mind boggles.

According to reports, the OKC Thunder have fired PJ Carlesimo, after their 1-12 start. Given their new location novelty, that team could sit on their hands, do nothing, and still have a great attendance year. Yet, they care enough about the club to see--after only a season or two--that PJ wasn't going to get it done. Even the Clippers are making moves, for Jim Pete's sake. Yet the Wolves--faced with the increasingly obvious evidence that this group is on a court to nowhere--are refusing to budge. They'd much rather spin at this point, and compare Jefferson to Hall of Fame centers, instead of building an environment where he could one day achieve that plateau.

That's the mark of pretenders, not contenders.

Philadelphia Freedom

(Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

For one night, the Wolves are free to celebrate an actual victory, having stayed tough against the 76ers 102-96 at Target Center. The post-game jubilation was not unlike the video clip of their very first franchise win against the Charles Barkley led Philly team 20 years ago, shown at halftime on FSN. It seemed as if the Sixers were content to try and win it in the last six or so minutes of the game, playing lethargically other than the first quarter where they jumped out to a double digit lead. But when you're 1-11 from the three point line, and only 15 of 23 from the free throw line, chances of a road victory--any road victory--are reduced. They came into Minnesota, thought it was going to be an easy win, and suffered the consequences.

The Wolves, on the other hand, did some nice things last night. Freed from having to play Rashad McCants any meaningful minutes (out with back spasms), they shared the ball very well with 29 assists. Craig Smith came off the bench with some great energy and scored 21 points, going 7-9 from the field. The fact he had zero rebounds was somewhat mitigated by his five assists.

In the fourth quarter, the club finally found Big Al, and in return Al found Mike Miller for a huge trey at the end of the game. Jefferson scored 8 points in the quarter, and seem determined to put the team on his back...as long as he could touch the ball. Miller had a nice overall game, with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists, and was able to play good enough defense not to be a liability at the end of that floor.

This club still is a mismatch of personnel; their two primary front court players (Jefferson, Love) play primarily at the same position, and are too small to play together consistently. For the night, the Sixers outrebounded the Wolves 40-33, and especially in the fourth, were able to drive to the hoop consistently. As has been pointed out in other blogs, adding Smith to the mix only makes them more susceptible to defensive breakdowns, where they have to aggressively double-team down in the block, only to have good teams swing the ball around for open looks on the perimeter. Because Brand had a bit of an off night (9-21 shooting), Dalumbert isn't a offensive force inside, and the Sixers weren't hitting their three point shots, the Wolves weren't exposed in this manner last night.

But small ball won't work consistently on this club. Overall team transition speed--especially in the front court--is mediocre at best, and would expose more of the club's weaknesses than play to their strengths. Furthermore, the NBA seems to being moving away from the D'Antoni-Nelson, glorified All Star game type of ball, where everyone runs and no one plays defense. If that's true, thank God. Save that type of junk for the D-League, college or European leagues. I love a good fastbreak, but let's play at both ends of the court please. Good defense can lead to great offense.

In the end--despite having to be told TWICE on the FSN broadcast about Jim Pete's appointment to the Lynx coaching staff--this win was one to savor, because there aren't many coming the Wolves way just yet...and the champs are coming to town on Friday.

Above Average?

"But give me a perennial contender over a magical season or two. I know this isn't the predominant view. I was one of the rare Target Center attendees who was very happy with the Saunders/Garnett tenure here." - Britt Robson, Secrets of the City

Ladies and gentlemen...I present your Lake Wobegon Timberwolves! Where, in this current professional sporting environment, leagues move franchises if cities don't pony up public financing for local arenas, increase ticket prices for even the most awful of teams, as well as charge full price for preseason games, above average performance--not championships--is the goal.

Of course, this begs a few questions:
1. Were the Timberwolves true contenders during the Garnett/Saunders years?
2. Would Garnett/Saunders themselves be content with their tenure in Minnesota?

In my view, the answers would be: Only one year, and, of course not.

3. Was it my imagination or was one of the reasons Garnett became increasingly dissatisfied with this franchise was its inability to truly compete for a title?
4. Why, after the Wolves fired him in 04-05, Saunders rejected a Milwaukee Bucks rebuilding offer to take a high risk, high reward coaching job with the Pistons?

The answers: it wasn't my imagination, and, the Pistons job offered him a better chance to win a ring.

Ultimately, if teams at the professional level don't consistently strive for excellence, they stagnate, and the great players--becoming increasingly concerned with their sporting legacy--look to achieve greatness elsewhere. In this small to mid market, where there are four professional teams competing for an increasingly expensive ticket, if teams can't legitimately compete for a title, they stagnate, and the fan base dwindles slowly over time.

This doesn't mean they have to win it all. Utah is a great example. During the Malone/Stockton years, they were at the doorstep, but never won. Now they have retooled, and again are in the mix in the competetive Western Conference. Despite being the only major league team in their market, they haven't taken themselves--or their fans--for granted. With so much riding on professional franchises--tax revenue, public subsidies, the surrounding businesses who depend on the fan base for increased patronage and profits--is it too much to ask that our teams strive to perform to the highest level, and be judged on the result?

Any standard lower than that seems rather D-League to me.

Groundhog Day or Space Jam?

In only nine games, this is what the Wolves season has been reduced to, a discussion about which movie is analogous to their awful 1-8 start. Given the similarities in a majority of the losses, in which the Wolves hold decent leads, only to wither in the clutch, Coach Wittman has offered the 1993 movie Groundhog Day with Bill Murray as their model for futility. Ever the contrarian, I respectfully disagree. Another Bill Murray movie--Space Jam--would be my pick. Why? Two reasons:

1) I truly believe aliens have stolen the basketball souls of our players.
2) Only Michael Jordan could save us now.

By the end of their game against Phoenix on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (11/26), the chances our club will be 1-12 are excellent. Looking on the bright side of life, we do have a great opportunity to once again matchup against our hated bottom dwellers--the OKC Thunder--in a 11/28 road battle to determine which team is the absolute worst in the league. Thankfully, there ARE other options that holiday weekend--Ike Reilly at First Avenue on Wednesday (for charity), and a prime repeat of the Ghost Whisperer on Friday (7:00 pm, your local CBS station). Given the dwindling crowds at Target Center, and the miniscule ratings the Wolves are currently pulling in on our local television outlets, the chances of a basketball fan "Wolves opt-out" are substantial.

Of course, a true fan might look at the Wolves ongoing dilemma as a continuing prime-time soap opera, a basketball version of ABC's Desperate Housewives. Call it Desperate Franchise, the story about an owner and his struggling team trying to gain respect in an elite league of sporting excellence, fame and wealth. Maybe we oould convince Eva Longoria Parker to join the show, in the hopes her husband wouldn't again torch us for 55 points.

Since there's no crying in basketball--for the players or the fans--humor is our only defense when witnessing a debacle of this proportion. On the other hand, there's also prayer...

From Good to Awful

"Greatness is not a function of circumstance; it is clearly a matter of conscious choice."
Jim Collins, From Good to Great

Earlier in this decade, the Wolves were good. They wanted to be great, and had a great player in Garnett, but never, as a team achieved greatness. Now, with KG gone and the team plummeting, fans are wondering: where did the Wolves go wrong? What can be done?

Mind you, I'm not the biggest fan of all these trendy business philosophy books. Given the Wolves 1-6 start however, it may be time to look past the stats and the on-court issues to the core organizational philosophies that have created this losing brand in the first place. I realize Glen Taylor is a successful, wealthy businessman. He doesn't need some full figured, five figure, anonymous figure to tell him how to be a successful sports executive. That would be presumptuous. But why not at least compare some core tenets of one of the more popular--and adopted--business tomes of our time to the current abyss known as the Wolves basketball organization:

1. Whether someone is the right person has more to do with character and innate capabilities than specific knowledge, skills or experience.

For years, we've been hearing folks like Kevin McHale and Jim Petersen tell everyone how knowledgeable they are about basketball. Petersen particularly during Wolves broadcasts has droned on about his own insider status, the fact he's played the game, the fact that McHale is one of the greatest players of our time. Okay, point taken. I would humbly reply that the list of great players who have mediocre to poor sports executives is long and deep. Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, Wes Unseld, Willis Reed, Elgin Baylor...I could go on. The principle here is that superior basketball knowledge alone is not enough to be a great sports executive, there are many other skills a person needs to be successful once they step off the hardwood.

2. Every good-to-great company had “Level 5” leadership during pivotal transition years, where Level 1 is a Highly Capable Individual, Level 2 is a Contributing Team Member, Level 3 is the Competent Manager, Level 4 is an Effective Leader, and Level 5 is the Executive who builds enduring greatness through a paradoxical blend of personal humility and professional will.

Is Kevin McHale a Level 5 executive?

3. Level 5 leaders display a compelling modesty, are self-effacing and understated. In contrast, two thirds of the comparison companies had leaders with gargantuan personal egos that contributed to the demise or continued mediocrity of the company.

Uh, I think the answer to the above question would be....no. Humble would not be a trait to describe the Iron Ranger. He's pretty folksy about his arrogance, but it's still arrogance.

4. The Level 5 discovery is an empirical, not ideological, finding.

Here again, at some point, the facts speak for themselves. After some early success, and Forbes Magazine notwithstanding, Glen Taylor should face the reality that McHale's track record--especially in the last few years--is not improving, but decaying. His judgment, especially in personnel matters, has been poor, and has diminished the Wolves brand.

5. Good-to-great companies focus on what Not to do and what they should stop doing.

One could certainly argue that the Wolves have tried to change their "blueprint" in the last two years. They jettisoned the strategy of finding KG's side kick, then acquired and re-signed young talent thought to be the new core of this team, at reasonable prices. The problem is, most of that talent has proven to be pretty mediocre, a clear failure of personnel evaluation. The latest move, acquiring Kevin Love for OJ Mayo, gave the Wolves much needed salary cap relief, a veteran personnel overhaul, and someone who had potential to be both a decent addition and a fan favorite. Love has shown signs of being serviceable to good, and has been described as already the second best player by some in the Wolves community, the first of course being Big Al. On a 1-6 team, who cares? It's becoming clearer that they essentially play the same position: power forward. Mayo, on the other hand, is meeting all expectations, and has become a core piece of the Memphis team. This storyline has a long way to go before it's finished, but when you consider the other significant draft picks--McCants, Foye, Smith, Brewer--it's clear that a primary failure of this club is picking talent, especially when players like Josh Howard, Danny Granger, Brandon Roy, and now Mayo were left on the table.

6. Good-to-great management teams consist of people who debate vigorously in search of the best answers, yet who unify behind decisions, regardless of parochial interests.

Here's another example of where the Wolves organization could be changing, at least in terms of bring more people to the table. I would suggest however, that if McHale--or Glen Taylor--is the Level 5 unifier, that's where the problem might be. Parochial interests might be described as the "one of us", or "country club" syndrome. Are the Wolves vigorously in search of the best answers? Who debated the Foye for Roy decision, or even the Mayo for Love deal on draft day?

Last night's game against the Warriors is another indication of the futility of this franchise. Last year, despite the lack of defensive acumen, we were told by McHale and Petersen that what the team primarily needed was outside shooting. In the off-season, they acquired Mike Miller and declared they were going to be able to spread the floor with shooters like McCants, Foye and Miller to provide relief for Big Al in the front court. Yet in the fourth quarter, against a zone defense, the Wolves spread the floor with those players, but couldn't hit a shot OR find Al underneath. Rashad McCants was primarily culpable last night, missing two shots in the last 28 seconds of regulation, then losing Stephen Jackson on defense for a dagger three pointer in overtime. It should be clear to everyone by now that Shaddy isn't a clutch scorer, and a poor defender. Randy Foye, thought to be the point guard of the future, can't run the team in pressure situations. What's the use of having shooters if they can't score or distribute?

I suggested in another blog that the Wolves go with the flow and, since they can't play defense consistently, simply find a coach like Flip Saunders who could refine their offense and make them entertaining. I was half-joking of course; if you can't play defense in this league, you're not going to win consistently. They played better defense last night, but lack any sort of closing confidence to finish games. From talent evaluation to coaching selection and execution, the Wolves have not been able to develop any winning strategies. One could say it's bad luck, but again if you find the "good to great" philosophy credible, organizations make their own luck. Through all the roster changes, coaching replacements and blueprints for the future, there have been two constants: Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale. Once they were good, but now they're awful. It's time to recognize that real change--and a path to greatness--starts at the top.

A Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Haven't we seen this before? The Wolves lay an egg against a beatable opponent (Sunday's effort against OKC), then rebound with an entertaining yet futile effort against an elite, albeit struggling team. It's fitting that we are celebrating the 20 year anniversary of the franchise, because it's expansion time all over again, baby. Any thought the Wolves might just surprise a few folks and actually compete for a low seed playoff slot are being dashed quickly. Our club had no answer for Tony Parker, who scored 55 points, with 10 assists in San Antonio's 129-125 victory in double OT.

Right now, after four games, it's hard to be on the fence about this team. Those who have bitten into the "McHale can rebuild this club" apple will point to individual performances by Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Corey Brewer, Sebastian Telfair and Al Jefferson as reasons to keep hope alive. For anyone who's in that camp, shouldn't those players be the starting five right now?

For those in the "nothing's changed" camp, we can look at poster children Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, along with coach Randy Wittman and the incessant spin of the Wolves broadcast team. Let's start with the coach. Given Parker was insane the entire night, I would certainly buy into the argument that there might have been nothing anyone could have done to stop him. No Wolves point guard or Brewer could even slow him down. However, at key points of the game--especially at the end of the first OT, couldn't the coach have tried to double team him to get the ball out of his hands or--gasp--deny him the rock? The fact is that time and time again Wittman has no answer for what the other team is doing.

Then there's Foye and McCants. Foye has been awful this year, but despite having a better game against the Spurs, he made two crucial turnovers at the end of the fourth quarter to once again cast doubt that he will be a star or core role player for this team. And of course, we have Shaddy. Here's a guy with all the physical talent in the world, but as immature as anyone named J.R. Rider. Last night he played no defense and made little effort to move the ball around to other teammates, being content to immediately jack up shots when he touched the ball.

Blogs across the Wolves community have presented viewing these two players as an "either or" proposition, as in one should stay and one should go. I've said it before and will say it again: how about dealing the both of them? It would of course be another blow to McHale's reputation as a personnel evaluator to do so, but given they have Telfair signed and a decent backup in Kevin Ollie along with other offensive weapons, why not get those two out of here? Jamaal Tinsely would be a better point guard than Foye at this juncture, and he probably has a better arsenal of handguns for this concealed carry state. It's getting more obvious by the day that as long as Randy Wittman is coach here, McCants will continue to have a short leash. They both still have the label "potential" etched into their resumes, why not send them packing, while they still have value? In Portland and Indiana, I'm sure Brandon Roy and Danny Granger are so thankful they didn't get drafted by this club.

Then there's my favorite whipping folks--the Wolves broadcast crew. This bunch can't call a game or produce any media without spinning how great everyone in the organization is, from draft picks to front office, to coaches, to ballboys, to trainers, to themselves. Could we at least get back to an 8th seed playoff slot before the heavenly proclamation declaring excellence is produced? Jim Petersen better get a room with Kevin Love, because he hasn't show this much affection toward a front court player since Mark "Second Best" Blount left the team. If I were Big Al, I might actually be jealous.

Here's the deal: Love has some good instincts, but the Spurs, like the Wolves, are pretty much a half-court team. Where the rook has been exposed is when matched up against any big who can run the court. Love played well against Duncan in the first half, but strangely wasn't matched up with him when Timmy heated up in the second half. K-Love is showing himself to be a good weak side defender, for example, but to state that he and Jefferson are going to be "dominant, at both ends of the court", is a huge stretch, and has that desperate, oversold feel to it, like having told us Mark Blount is "the second best center in the Western Conference" a couple of years ago. To both Petersen and Pat Reusse, I would simply say let's wait and see, it's a long season.

So once again we have lines being drawn here; you can either be taken with efforts like last night, or you could take a step back and say--not unlike David Byrne--"same as it ever was". Because it's only four games, I remain a glass half full guy at this juncture, but I could certainly understand why fans would not want to support this team, until actual, un-spinnable progress is shown by the Wolves.