Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Love vs. Lopez vs. Mayo


There are some things people won't let go of. Norm Coleman isn't giving up the thought of being senator. President Bush's aides believe Americans will judge him favorably after, say, 100 years or so. Bill Maher hates religion and loves marijuana. Garrison Keillor will always be above-average.

For the Wolves and their so-called player development, up until one Kevin Love came to town, bloggers and fans were still spending a fair amount of time hating the draft day trade of a couple of years ago, when Brandon Roy was sent packing for one Randy Foye. That one has been a clear mismatch from the beginning; even after one year it was easy to proclaim that the Blazers got the better of the deal. As you know over the summer we had another such deal--this time with Memphis-- moving one OJ Mayo and a couple of bad contracts (Jaric, Walker) for Love, Mike Miller and one particularly bad contract (Brian Cardinal). For the record, Greg Buckner and Jason Collins were also swapped, but the main focus here was acquiring Love and Miller, as well as dumping those contracts.

Those that loved the trade--the good folks at Canis Hoopus, for example--called it highway robbery. One of their esteemed bloggers went so far to rather amazingly say he would have picked Love straight up with no strings attached. For that comment, he has a special place in the Kevin McHale/Jim Petersen personnel hall of fame. Those that disliked the Love pick--Patrick Reusse comes to mind--continue to rip the Wolves, and in one particularly premature column, Love himself. When OJ came to town last month in the Wolves first win against the Grizz, Reusse couldn't resist pining for young Mayo.

The deal has given Minnesota fans (what's left of them) a renewed sense of controversy and debate, as if the recent political campaigns weren't enough. Tuesday night, as the Wolves were winning their third straight--once again our Memphis trade partners were the victim, 94-87-- gave yet another opportunity to prove SOMEONE right or wrong.

It didn't happen.

Randy Foye was the star, playing clutch in the last few minutes of the game and for the night had 23 points. Mayo led his team with 20 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists; Love had a quiet game with 6 points and 7 rebounds. The reality is that both Minnesota and Memphis are still bad teams, and it's going to be hard to proclaim a winner unless one of these clubs breaks from the pack with either Love or Mayo helping to lead the unwashed out of the wilderness. Mayo is clearly the more skilled and advanced player right now, Love is the monster rebounder and decent passer who is struggling in every other aspect of his game. Until Memphis has a stronger front court, and can play a stronger "inside-out" game, the Grizz aren't going anywhere. Until the Wolves develop consistency with someone else other than Al Jefferson on offense, and can play at least better team defense, winning against mediocre to bad teams is the best they can hope for.

With the current winning streak, it certainly can be argued that this is the Minnesota team we expected coming out of the gate. The Wolves tempo, ball movement, and offensive execution are much better under the Iron Ranger than under Wittman. For the fans sake, this is a positive development. However, proponents of smallball or run and gun play have no sense of NBA history...whatsoever. Since Minnesota's bar is so low currently, smallball WILL be an improvement, if the talent is there. But not unlike a recent political controversy, it's a bridge leading to nowhere. Spending all this time, talent and effort just to taste a playoff slot is illogical, on the verge of dysfunctional. It represents a fan base so beaten down with failure, that ANY improvement is met with a gush of hope and optimism, facts be dammed.

Based on those conclusions, I say again-- although very prematurely--that right now the better pick for the Wolves last summer would have been Brook Lopez, not Mayo or Love. He's rebounding better than Love, and like Mayo, has been able to break into the starting lineup and continue the Nets transformation they started with the trading of Jason Kidd last year and Richard Jefferson over the summer. With Devin Harris at PG and Lopez at the five, you have youth, speed, and size to build upon--whatever they decide to do with the overrated Vince Carter.

That's a better balanced approach, from both a personnel and an on-court perspective.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I did put up a little post a while back about saying the "highway robbery" comment was overblown. It could still work out that way but it was a tad premature to say the very least.

I'd still take Love with the 3rd pick straight up. I think he's going to be that good of a player. I do agree that the big choice is between Love and Lopez and if there is to be some 20/20 hindsight discussion about the trade it is that they didn't approach New Jersey with their 2 1st rounders that were used on Lopez and Ryan Anderson.

Love is shooting over 50% of late and if he can maintain that FG% while continuing to add a mid range game, he'll be a well above average player for his career. His rebound rates are off-the-charts good and if he can work his way to 25 mpg while maintaining those rates this year he should end the season in the 10/10 range with a PER of 16-18. That's fantastic for a rookie big man. He's a possession extending machine which is quite valuable on a team that struggles to put the ball in the hoop and isn't very good on D. Granted, he's contributed to those 2 problems but they aren't going away with the other personnel on this squad.

Peter Weinhold said...

Ah, long term, we'll have to see. Kevin certainly tries hard, but in the end you can only work with what you got. Lopez has the size, a nice mid range shot already formed and seems to be an okay passer.

Love is going to have to work very hard and develop his finishes around the basket to compliment his rebounding.

But my purpose was to expand the discussion a bit beyond Mayo and Love. As opposed to Roy/Foye, it's going to take awhile for this one to play out, especially with a big man like Love.

Anonymous said...

Agreed about extending the debate. It's Mayo v. Foye and Love v. Lopez. They felt like they could trade Mayo because Foye was supposed to be workable.