Sunday, November 25, 2007

Alternative Programming

My daughter--home for Thanksgiving, now on her way back to NY--is trying to get me hooked on Heroes, the NBC Monday night comic book drama. Since the writers strike is as of this date not settled, reports are that shows are running out of first run episodes, and will either broadcast reruns, or find other reality based programming to show.

Civic minded pop culturist that I am, I'd like to propose an alternative. A spin-off of Heroes, based on the exploits of our own Minnesota Timberwolves, I present to you...Zeros.

Our storyline so far...

Local billionaire saves franchise from relocation, and along with a hall-of-fame sports icon turned vice-president (VP) and his youthful sidekick Flip, seeks to re-energize team by an infusion of fresh DNA and changed uniforms. A club is formed--Taylor.org--with the belief that parochial front office networking with former Gopher, Big Ten and Celtic greats will be the key to greatness. For a brief time, hope is high, as a threesome emerges to compete for the hearts and minds of the Minnesota sporting public. Success is fleeting, however, as front-office foibles and foul-ups cause two of the three to journey both west and east, leaving only one super-human alone
to languish without help for years on end. The billionaire--seemingly under some sort of mind-meld emanating from our hall of famer--does the VP's bidding, signing mercenaries of reported disrepute to assist our one withering asset. For a single glorious year, order is restored and national fame is achieved. However the mercenaries--when not paid their excessive booty--rebel against our valiant club, causing the franchise to implode, nearly taking out loyal sidekick Flip, who after months of healing, wanders to Detroit to find his coaching "chi" again.

Meanwhile, our lone super hero begins to show signs of CLD--Chronic Losing Disease. Symptoms include looking wasted and hopeless in the 4th quarter along with paradoxical thinking, like using available Taylor.org resources to re-sign associates with limited talent, and demanding salary extensions that would extinguish any hope of acquiring the help needed to once again bring happiness to a restless and suspicious public. Tension between the VP and our lone hero grows, as the CLD only gets worse and the affliction threatens to spread throughout the entire organization, the irony being however that the VP is the carrier of the CLD--NOT the superstar. Increasingly besieged and isolated, the VP increases the intensity of the mind-meld on the local billionare, and begins to develop a plan. He must rid himself of the lone superstar before it's too late!

In the summer of 2007...the deed is done. Our one hero is dispatched to Boston, before the disease is irreversible. Within months, he is back to near peak health--with salary extensions intact. The Boston sporting public, having previously received gifts from other Minnesota sporting franchises, is thankful and energized. Having nearly rid themselves of all signs of their own CLD, they are looking forward AND upward to the rafters, where signs of previous glory hang from the ceiling.

News is not so good for the Midwestern homeland though. Trading the superstar did not halt the spread of CLD. In fact, much like an earlier transaction with the East Coast franchise, the CLD has only intensified and again threatens the entire organization. Our billionaire begins to show early signs of his own, giving bizarre interviews to local media, in hoping to convince the cynical public that time and the continuing expertise of our VP will be all that's needed to rid ourselves of this horrible affliction. The television color analyst takes the role of Chief Vindicator and attempts to misdirect the public. He often begins statements with "What people don't realize", or "what the ordinary fan doesn't know", in hopes of convincing the public that this affliction is not CLD, but merely a three to six year rash. Some of "the cultures" they received this time from Boston--along with local strains already developed, will prove themselves, he claims.

On the court, however, the results get only worse. "The cultures" sent from Boston sometimes show promise, only to fail by the 4th quarter. Turnovers, poor defense and shooting, and lack of execution all are taking it's toll on our team. To date mostly zeros exist.

Who will save us? Who will save them?

Thursday, November 22, 2007

Just like Coach drew it up...

Happy Thanksgiving!

Just before the actual game telecast on Channel 45, JB Bickerstaff was showing exactly how the Wolves were going to defend LeBron James that night. He spoke of how King James liked to work the left side, how the Cavs were going to clear space to exploit the defense, and how the Wolves were going to converge and make him give up the ball.

Wow. Who won that battle of strategy?

Yeah, they forced him to shoot jump shots in the second half, but the reality is he's a great closer, and he toasted the Wolves with clutch shot after clutch shot. James was a +14 for the night when only a few others on his injury riddled team decided to show up. The Wolves--by contrast--also have a few nicks, but again showed why this year is going to be rocky at best. They played harder than they did the last two games, and also notched 20 assists for the first time this season. However, the Cavs shot 20 more free throws than the Wolves, out rebounded the Pups, and had a slightly better field goal percentage than our club, in addition to having a player who's not afraid to take over the game when necessary.

In fact, I find LeBron is the perfect reply to those KG fans who ramble on about how Ticket didn't get the help he needed in Minnesota. Here's a guy that truly has taken lesser talent and at the right time, takes over games to lead his team to victory. Contrast that to KG, who plays maestro for three quarters, and now hands off the game to Ray Allen or Paul Pierce. KG may be an all around better player than James, but where he can't match the King is in those singular moments where the star has to shine brightly for the team to win. Five years into his career, James has done it many more times than KG has done it in 13. A primer for smaller market franchises: if you're going to pay one third of your cap to a single baller, then make sure he can do what James is doing for the Cavs. Seemingly, KG never quite understood the need to take significantly less money (not just the "discount" he took to get Sprewell and Cassell here) because, despite his greatness, he couldn't deliver in that one category--clutch 4th quarter shooting.

As for the Wolves, no one save Corey Brewer had a plus rating last night; technically Corey was at zero, but at least it wasn't negative. Jefferson had a good-to-great game, but also had five turnovers. Gerald Green probably will get some burn over the next few games off his performance as well. From a team viewpoint however, the Wolves are a collection of parts who are still trying to do too much individually on offense, and who don't defend well on defense. As time wears on, anyone paying attention to the players can see that, for example, Ryan Gomes should not be putting the ball on the floor--he's a spot up shooter. McCants is a talent, but not as talented as he thinks he is. No one on the club save Jefferson is a clutch finisher, which truly hurt the club last night.

Taking all these aspects into consideration, what improvements should we be looking for this year, since we will probably set the NBA single season record for losses ? The key will revolve around their identity. We hear a ton of talk from the Iron Ranger and Wittman about smash mouth basketball and throwing punches--real manly type of talk. The reality is right now the Wolves are still primarily a soft, jump shooting team. They have one true post player, and their offensive rebounding is better, but no team that gets to the line so infrequently, and plays as soft of defense as this club does can be labeled smash mouth or tough. At the end of the year if we have a core of players who have committed to that identity and know how to realize it, that should be one critical indicator of success.

If the fans can see progress in a core of players who show real commitment to developing and improving in all the "mental toughness" areas: defense, sharing the ball, 4th quarter play, etc, then hope can be legitimately sold. If what we've seen of the last three games is going to play out for the entire season, then I'm not sure a high draft choice will be enough to give any fans a sense that the current regime has any more clue than it did when KG was here to rebuild the team. It'll be like the Bickerstaff "chalk-talk" last night: great on paper, a failure on the court.

Sunday, November 18, 2007

The "Weak" in Review

It's gonna be a l-o-o-o-n-n-g season.

After winning their first game last Wednesday, and watching the first three quarters of the Washington game on NBA League Pass, I thought I was witnessing growth on the part of this club. Whoops. This was the "take one step forward, two back" type of effort from the Wolves. One thing the Iron Ranger said after the KG trade has come true: players are jockeying for positions of leadership and dominance on this team, and it ain't working.

Case in point: Rashad McCants. He was number one all night against Sac-town, but played like number two against Washington and New Orleans. If he can stay healthy and keep his head on straight, he can be a second or third option on this club, and maybe a designated dagger on some nights. But his shot troubles me, to the point where if adjustments aren't made, I'm wondering about his long term future in this league. If you look closely at his shot, his arc toward the basket is not the classic rainbow, nor is it as flat as KG's when he first came into the league. I've noticed him starting to front rim more shots, which is indicative of what happens when people start to lose their leg strength, especially long-in-the-tooth veterans. He seems to have his quickness back, but if another micro-fracture incident occurs, I think his shot drops off dramatically. I would start working on putting more arc (and touch) on his shot.

Then there are the turnovers. Currently he's 8th in the league with 3.7 turnovers, and a turnover to assist ratio of .46. For a team that wants to transition to a more smashmouth type of game, clearly this gent can't be the main option. It's sexy to fall in love with his shot when it's falling, but the rest of his game hasn't developed. I think his game flourishes when AJ learns how to pass out of the double team better, and draws folks in. It's great that he wants to be a leader, but leadership doesn't necessarily mean BMOT--Big Man on Team.

Other issues: Defense.

The Wolves have actually gotten worse the last five games in their point differential; they've allowed their opposition 10 more points than they have scored. True, the last two games have skewed that average, but for a team struggling to win, this almost seemed like they took a night off Saturday. Already. Their defense--particularly around the perimeter--is awful. They can't stop dribble penetration or prevent teams from getting a great look from downtown. Their zone is very soft, not good when you're trying to establish some sort of identity or chemistry. This can be possibly be explained by more playing time together, but as has been pointed out before, the Wolves have never been particularly good at team defense.

Issue #2: Sharing the ball.

I've harped on this from the beginning, but the club is still under 20 assists a game. Not that I'm a big Hoosiers fan or anything, but that whole three passes things before shooting generally isn't a bad idea. And, there are simply too many times where AJ doesn't touch the ball. Rashad--and the rest of the club--need to defer to him, and he needs to respond in kind with passes out of the double or triple team.

Issue #3: Coaching. For a supposed young team in search of identity or chemistry, early on it's the coach who makes the difference. How? By setting goals, establishing boundaries and being consistent in his or her message. Wittman hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been that great either. The reality is that he himself doesn't have that much head coaching experience. You see this in being unable to establish a true rotation or enforce a pecking order, and not being able to make adjustments, especially in the fourth quarter, where good teams always step up and make a run. It's early yet, but Coach Wittman needs reinforce his vision by clear decisive moves. He's made a lot of moves, but they're very random, like he's searching for something--anything--to work.

Finally, Issue# 4: Veteran leadership. Here's where I think Buckner, Ratliff and Antoine Walker have been pretty good, Walker in particular. Antoine has played hard, not settled for just the three, and seems like--at least so far--a pretty good teammate. Contrast that to the train wreck in Miami, where Ricky Davis has continued his quick shooting ways, and the player formerly known as the second best center in the Western Conference is causing heads to scratch everywhere, except in Minnesota and Boston. That trade doesn't look so lopsided now!

One last comment: Another subject I harp on way too often, but I can't help but notice the arrogance Jim Pete has for the common fan. Often, you will hear him preface many remarks with "what people don't realize", or "what the average fan doesn't understand". Mr. Petersen, actually I think a lot of us do understand more than you give us credit for. Let's be clear once and for all; you were absolutely mistaken about the first Boston trade, and about Mike James and Mark Blount. I'll give you your due because you played the game at the pro level, but you were a journeyman at best, and have been wrong enough in your player evaluations and insights into the game to make you no better than a garden variety knowledgeable person who's kept up via stats, occasional arena appearances, and blogs. You're fortunate to be at the broadcast table, so treat the dwindling Wolves fan base with some amount of respect. The way the club is playing, you're going to need every last one of us.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

The Lost Weekend

Doug Collins is right.

We are the worst team in the league.

Seattle may still give us a run for the money, but after watching the club this weekend, we "win" by a sprained ankle. Randy Wittman, mouth agape like someone just killed his dog in the front yard, must be checking the karma scope for what he did in his past lives to deserve two "set-up to fail" NBA head coaching opportunities. Membership in Taylor.org does come with some responsibilities though; he's been around here long enough to understand that. Every group needs the Fall Guy...Randy's time is now; his tenure may run for at least this year and the next.

The optimists in the room might offer that there are plenty of 0-fer teams still in the standings. Taking a look at the statistics, teams like Washington are solidly ahead of us in giving up points per game. I ask anyone, who would you pick to win in a Wizards-Wolves match up? How about the Heat or Warriors? Only Seattle makes you stop and think about it for a second.

The fallacy of the whole youth argument is that the players we received in the KG trade weren't rookies, each of them have enough years in the league for evaluators to know whether or not they have an upside. Their chronological age may be young, but most of the folks are in their make or break 3 or 4th year.
In the case of Jefferson and Telfair, this is their 4th year in the league. Green and Gomes in their 3rd. Given that any team--except Boston, it seems--generally needs time to mesh in cases of extreme roster upheaval, these first five or so games provide a ready made excuse for those who bought into the starting over argument. But players should be figuring it out by this time in their professional career. It's the amount of games--not chronological age. This is where the hype of Taylor.org does deserve credit for lowering the bar. Youth and roster upheaval--what can we possibly expect? Keep those dollars flowing folks...after a couple of years, we'll maybe get back to playoff contention. It's up to us as fans to expect--and demand--more, namely:

1) Defense. It's sexy to have a shot blocker for those 4 or 5 plays a game where the ball gets swatted away. Theo's fighting the good fight, but what about the other 40 or so other plays that get run? Jim Pete correctly pointed out last night that the perimeter defense of the Wolves has been traditionally bad. This is not a particular coaching problem, it permeates the entire organization. How about a little smash-mouth at the defensive end of the court fellas? It's also clear that if anyone was planning to have AJ play the 5 for more than 10 minutes a game, they should have their head examined--since firings seem to be few and far between at Taylor.org. I enjoy watching Jefferson on the low block and rebound, but his defense is suspect, especially at center.

2) Sharing the ball. If it's true--as Britt Robson offers--that we lack talent, then finding the way to share the ball is paramount. We're averaging just under 20 assists a game; teams such as the Jazz and Celtics are around 28 and 26 respectively. We need to move the ball and establish the pecking order, to find match ups we actually can exploit. Inside out with AJ as first option. Like his defense, he will have to be better at passing the ball out of double teams, but there's the All-Star challenge for the young man. And, not much pick and roll so far. Sharing the ball is an aspect of chemistry and BBall IQ, so one would expect if they really do want to win, instead of reverting to "me-first on the playground" ball this should be hammered home for the entire season. Anyone who wants to stay here should make that commitment.

Those two dynamics are indications of effort--not talent. If you want to threaten people with watching what could be a historical amount of losses for one season (Doug Collins was on that team, BTW), then instead of merely selling chemistry and loyalty in your marketing campaign, how about actually displaying it?

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Early Results Just In...

I was flipping the channels last night, courtesy of NBA League Pass and ESPN...

Boston is on an early season mission, their latest conquest being the Nuggets. Even though they pummeled Denver, it was more of the Nugs not showing up than anything the Celtics were doing. Hall of Famer Bob Cousy joined the Celtics broadcast, and both he and Homer Heinsohn were remarking how bad Denver's defense was by the middle of the second quarter.

What is remarkable about this version of the C's is that these guys are really sharing the ball. Last night they had 32 assists. True they had 21 turnovers, but when you shoot over 60% for the game and out rebound your opponent, you can afford those turnovers, at least against regular season, indifferent competition. One sign of concern for the Celtics--James Posey went down with an injury. It didn't seem serious, but injuries will be the test of this club, because their bench is still suspect. They are going to have to keep the Big Three and their major role players healthy come playoff time, to have any chance of making a deep playoff run. One bright spot off the bench has been Eddie House. Traditionally not much of point guard, he's come in and given them decent play, and also has been able to hit his usual long ball in the early games. At the post-game press conference, you can tell KG is enjoying being in the limelight again.

As for the Nuggets, not to show up for a game against major competition--even on a back-to-back--
this early in the season is pretty troubling. Are they overrated? They've got a lot of talent on their team, but also plenty of attitude. I think Karl has a lot on his hands right now.

My new nickname for Shaq is the Big Drop Off. Yeah, he doesn't get his motor running until the playoffs, but he looks really OLD and disinterested out there right now. I think the Miami folks are figuring out maybe Davis and Blount weren't that good of additions to their squad.

Robert Swift of Seattle resembles a 2K version of Bill Walton, when he was with the TrailBlazers, a mountain man with major tattoos. He has had major injuries, but he looks like he's coming around. Kevin Durant on the other hand, looks lost. Against Memphis he was shooting out of rhythm, and jacking up shots left and right. As bad as the Wolves are, the Sonics may be worse. Wally is doing a pretty good job for them coming off the bench, but he looks a step slow. He's still clapping his hands for the ball out on the perimeter, however. Some things will never change.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

See How They Can Lose

Both the MSM and alternative media are going pretty soft on the Wolves right now. The StarTrib's Souhan literally gushes about Big Al and takes another shot at KG. Britt Robson is more detailed and substantiated, offering that Randy Wittman is doing a good job of getting the Wolves ready to start the game, not mentioning the job he did the last three quarters. Okay, they're looking for positives, evaluating rationally...it's a long season after all.

Whatever.

In last night's loss, it wasn't anything that Wittman did, it was Orlando who let up and allowed the Wolves back into the game, as opposed to the coach "wanting the game". The Wolves announcers were throwing their hands up in resignation when Lewis was draining clutch threes, but how about a defensive adjustment, maybe even attempting to deny him the ball, or run the gent through a couple of hard picks at the other end? How about picking up Arroyo closer to half court and applying some on ball pressure? That's smash mouth, intense basketball, not the sort of namby-pamby stuff we've seen so far.

I'll agree with Wittman's take on playing better straight up defense and being more aggressive, but when the only bitching you hear from the Wolves section is the VP a few rows up, it's Casey's disease all over again. How about the coach getting a little intense and leading by example? Please, at least a technical or two...throw in a good cheap shot at Dan Crawford, telling him all bets are off now, he can go back to calling the game. Respect comes not only from aggressiveness, but letting the refs know YOU know what's going on here--the same old crap entry level teams get in this league.

Losing is contagious; you have to fight with every weapon you have in your arsenal to make sure you're not irrelevant by December, developing team or not. Until that little spurt in the fourth, why should the fans who attended the game come back?

Maybe Sweetwater Jones should have been activated for the game. He's got a little fight in him.

Sunday, November 4, 2007

Channel Surfing

My day was spent flipping between Adrian Peterson, Boston's big three, the Wolves, and Colts/Pats. The Celtics had a playoff type game with the Raptors in Toronto and won in overtime on Ray Allen's last second shot. Our Wolves lost another in NY, mostly due to another huge disparity in free throws--only 6 out of 10 for our club, 30-39 for the Knicks. As I mentioned earlier today, if the first two games are any indication, it's going to be a long year, especially with the referees in this league.

The positives: no turnovers for Sebastian Telfair, and a decent performance from Greg Buckner. Once Randy Foye returns, this duo has the potential to be a good second unit backcourt. It seemed as if Big Al and Sebastian were woofing at each other from time to time, so all this chemistry talk may be just that...talk. Since we are told at the opening of every year how well the guys are getting along with each other, I would not believe a word coming from any Taylor.org employee. It's like someone has developed the Midwestern sports marketing template: whatever you do, make sure loyalty and chemistry are always two key talking points. Very Republican.

The negatives:
Is this truly McHale's idea of smashmouth basketball? Way too many jump shots, players trying to do too much, (see Theo Ratliff), and Coach Wittman. His substitutions, especially bringing Antoine Walker to jack up a three at the end of the game, was suspect. Our second unit needs work, especially when Marko is on the court. Whatever veteran leadership we do have may need to show up to prevent the drop off in scoring and intensity. Wittman needs to work the refs more, and get a few technicals to get their attention.

As for Boston, it was the big three and a half, as James Posey was a key player for the Celtics. One huge issue for that club around playoff time will be Rondo's ability to guard super quick PG's (see Tony Parker). TJ Ford ripped him a new one. One interesting KG note was the Raptors choice of not double teaming him in the fourth quarter. Chris Bosh could not play him straight up, which lead KG to hit some big shots in overtime. The effect of being able to spread the floor with three All-Stars and KG isolating on a single defender may improve his reputation of not being a scorer in the clutch.

Finally, even though I've been hard on our Jim Petersen, there's no bigger homer commentator than Tommy Heinsohn. Jim Pete pales in comparison to Tommy, and is a better in game observer than the former Celtic coach. With Heinsohn at the mic, it's going to be a long season trying to watch the Celtics progress toward the post season. Would somebody please ask Bill Russell to come back for just one year and provide commentary?

After Further Review...

The first game is history.

After suffering through the initial hype of Taylor.org selling us on how exciting this season will be, the results weren't all that different from the last few years. Mental toughness and fourth quarter finishing are tough to develop and even harder to trade for, one year of Sam Cassell notwithstanding.

There were good signs though; low turnovers and decent interior defense from time to time, for example. I think it's a reality that the referees--treating us like most rookies entering the league--are not going to give us the benefit of the doubt, even at home. Respect will have to be earned. That will make it even harder to successfully finish out close games in the 4th. There will be little room for error, and given the early tendencies of our club, there will be only a few opportunities to take teams out; when it happens we must
aggressively seize them. Otherwise, it's expansion team comparisons for the year, no matter what Jerry Zgoda says.

One thought however...is it any wonder that since the primary selling point of the KG trade has been Al Jefferson, after repeated missives from the Iron Ranger about how good Big Al is, and signing him to an major extension, that teams would actually pay attention and double/triple team him the entire game? Until the Wolves can develop better dribble penetration, ball movement and feed other low post options, it's jump shots in the 4th, baby. Teams will be naturally forcing other players to beat them. The disparity in free throws between the Nuggets and Wolves demonstrates this point. The ability to get to the stripe to stay in the game, and then take over in the 4th is textbook road winning procedure. The Wolves are still skimming the primer...or should I say perimeter?

Having said all that, seeing what Sebastian Telfair can do for the club while Foye is out is extremely valuable. Jaric may whine about wanting yet ANOTHER (sorry Mr. Robson, for using capital letters for effect) chance, but being able to evaluate whether or not you potentially want to be adding another big (see Hibbert/Georgetown) or hunt for still yet a true point guard for next year is important. Seeing Telfair play today in NY should be very interesting. Let's hope it brings back fond memories of his high school exploits.

However, the Knicks will rebound from their opening loss to the Cavs, and win by at least 10. I'd love for the club to prove me wrong. Put it this way...we're still doing better than the Bulls. How disappointed Chicago must be in their season start! (Sorry again, Britt, for the use of exclamation points)