Sunday, November 18, 2007

The "Weak" in Review

It's gonna be a l-o-o-o-n-n-g season.

After winning their first game last Wednesday, and watching the first three quarters of the Washington game on NBA League Pass, I thought I was witnessing growth on the part of this club. Whoops. This was the "take one step forward, two back" type of effort from the Wolves. One thing the Iron Ranger said after the KG trade has come true: players are jockeying for positions of leadership and dominance on this team, and it ain't working.

Case in point: Rashad McCants. He was number one all night against Sac-town, but played like number two against Washington and New Orleans. If he can stay healthy and keep his head on straight, he can be a second or third option on this club, and maybe a designated dagger on some nights. But his shot troubles me, to the point where if adjustments aren't made, I'm wondering about his long term future in this league. If you look closely at his shot, his arc toward the basket is not the classic rainbow, nor is it as flat as KG's when he first came into the league. I've noticed him starting to front rim more shots, which is indicative of what happens when people start to lose their leg strength, especially long-in-the-tooth veterans. He seems to have his quickness back, but if another micro-fracture incident occurs, I think his shot drops off dramatically. I would start working on putting more arc (and touch) on his shot.

Then there are the turnovers. Currently he's 8th in the league with 3.7 turnovers, and a turnover to assist ratio of .46. For a team that wants to transition to a more smashmouth type of game, clearly this gent can't be the main option. It's sexy to fall in love with his shot when it's falling, but the rest of his game hasn't developed. I think his game flourishes when AJ learns how to pass out of the double team better, and draws folks in. It's great that he wants to be a leader, but leadership doesn't necessarily mean BMOT--Big Man on Team.

Other issues: Defense.

The Wolves have actually gotten worse the last five games in their point differential; they've allowed their opposition 10 more points than they have scored. True, the last two games have skewed that average, but for a team struggling to win, this almost seemed like they took a night off Saturday. Already. Their defense--particularly around the perimeter--is awful. They can't stop dribble penetration or prevent teams from getting a great look from downtown. Their zone is very soft, not good when you're trying to establish some sort of identity or chemistry. This can be possibly be explained by more playing time together, but as has been pointed out before, the Wolves have never been particularly good at team defense.

Issue #2: Sharing the ball.

I've harped on this from the beginning, but the club is still under 20 assists a game. Not that I'm a big Hoosiers fan or anything, but that whole three passes things before shooting generally isn't a bad idea. And, there are simply too many times where AJ doesn't touch the ball. Rashad--and the rest of the club--need to defer to him, and he needs to respond in kind with passes out of the double or triple team.

Issue #3: Coaching. For a supposed young team in search of identity or chemistry, early on it's the coach who makes the difference. How? By setting goals, establishing boundaries and being consistent in his or her message. Wittman hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been that great either. The reality is that he himself doesn't have that much head coaching experience. You see this in being unable to establish a true rotation or enforce a pecking order, and not being able to make adjustments, especially in the fourth quarter, where good teams always step up and make a run. It's early yet, but Coach Wittman needs reinforce his vision by clear decisive moves. He's made a lot of moves, but they're very random, like he's searching for something--anything--to work.

Finally, Issue# 4: Veteran leadership. Here's where I think Buckner, Ratliff and Antoine Walker have been pretty good, Walker in particular. Antoine has played hard, not settled for just the three, and seems like--at least so far--a pretty good teammate. Contrast that to the train wreck in Miami, where Ricky Davis has continued his quick shooting ways, and the player formerly known as the second best center in the Western Conference is causing heads to scratch everywhere, except in Minnesota and Boston. That trade doesn't look so lopsided now!

One last comment: Another subject I harp on way too often, but I can't help but notice the arrogance Jim Pete has for the common fan. Often, you will hear him preface many remarks with "what people don't realize", or "what the average fan doesn't understand". Mr. Petersen, actually I think a lot of us do understand more than you give us credit for. Let's be clear once and for all; you were absolutely mistaken about the first Boston trade, and about Mike James and Mark Blount. I'll give you your due because you played the game at the pro level, but you were a journeyman at best, and have been wrong enough in your player evaluations and insights into the game to make you no better than a garden variety knowledgeable person who's kept up via stats, occasional arena appearances, and blogs. You're fortunate to be at the broadcast table, so treat the dwindling Wolves fan base with some amount of respect. The way the club is playing, you're going to need every last one of us.

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