Spurs bludgeon their way to title

Are the Spurs a dirty team? Yes. Are they a great organization? Yes. Can these two values co-exist? Yes. This will be an interesting series for awhile, but I'm picking the Spurs to win, in four or five games.

I've been pretty mediocre in my NBA predictions this year; I'm a much better after the fact second guesser, like most fans. But given the mythic rise of King James this year a couple of issues will be particularly fascinating to watch:

Fouling. Last year, the complaint from the Mavs was that all you had to do was breathe on D-Wade, and he would go to the stripe. Given the "star" factor, how much punishment will the refs allow Lebron to take? You know Bowen and/or Horry will trip, whip or knee James at some time during the series. Given the controversies in these playoffs, it will be up to the refs to establish their boundaries quickly in the first game.

Supporting cast. Can Daniel Gibson lead the supporting cast again for the Cavs? While Billups tried to muscle him down low, Tony Parker will try to draw fouls by using his quickness to penetrate and score. If Gibson, or Hughes can't slow Parker down, or keep from fouling him, Parker will have a field day getting to the line, or finishing. There may be a lot of bench grabbing for those two, thus potentially negating Gibson's contribution on offense.

Defense vs. Defense. As has been pointed out in other blogs, the Cavs play very good "D", but are pretty combustible emotionally, while the Spurs seemingly are able to keep their cool in most situations. Even when they lost it (re:Horry) they benefited from the situation. Drew Gooden is making the transition from bonehead to solid player, but would be my pick as "the player most likely to get technicals" in this series. Can the Cavs keep their defensive focus?

I think the conventional wisdom is pretty true in the case: Lebron is going to have to be special, and even more consistent than he was against the Pistons. The Pistons were ready to be beaten, it turns out, and James--with ample help from Gibson and others--rose to the occasion. I think the Spurs can kick it into gears the Cavs don't have, especially when the going gets tough.

Just watch out for those knees, trips and shoves, especially off the ball and away from the action. Somebody might get hurt, or suspended.