Monday, July 30, 2007

Ticket to Ride

An era looks to be ending, I'm sorry to report. As much as I've enjoyed watching KG over the years, I guess everything has to end, especially in professional sports. The delusional behavior by just about everyone associated with this drama brought this to a head. Here's what I posted on Britt Robson's Rake blog:

"If you can only primarily deal with one agent and GM in any professional league, you're screwed. Somewhere along the line, Glen Taylor must have an on-the-road-to-Damascus epiphany and understand what damage he and McHale have wreaked on an unsuspecting basketball market. If that understanding ever is achieved, sackcloth and ashes aren't nearly enough for what has transpired here during KG's tenure. Given that scenario, this deal is pretty much the same as any other realistic offer. It won't solve the core issues facing this club. At least we might get our draft pick back from the last botched trade.

Fred Hoiberg can't fix this, neither will Jim Petersen, who I'm sure --just like the other Boston trade--will defend it for at least a year and half. And, just like the other Boston trade, he will be wrong. It will take a totally fresh look to build the scouting, dealing and coaching acumen to make this team a success.

However, KG is no Tim Duncan. If reports are correct, him asking to get paid another 100 million dollars over four to six years demonstrates we could have never found the resources to build around him anyway at this stage of his career. The T-Wolves needed to get salary relief from him if he was to stay in Minnesota for life. So fine Danny Ainge, give him one last big payday. There are no excuses left for KG; if those three are healthy, they should make runs deep into the playoffs for at least three years, given the East's reputation as the JV conference.

As for what we have now, I guess I wouldn't worry about the rebounding. Other than Ticket, we were getting dominated when it counted anyway. KG wasn't tough on the glass, he grabbed a lot of easy rebounds at the end of plays. We now at least have a couple of players willing to play in the low post. Consistently.

What we have left are many gambles, but no safe bets. It will take much more hard work and fresh analysis to build the right mix of youth and veterans to compete in the Western Conference.

We're again at wait and see, with the Iron Ranger still at the controls. Given his performance at draft time, and Taylor's subsequent spin of this drama, why should we bother to trust anything they have left to say?"

Sunday, July 29, 2007

SA goes Crazay

One thing I do like about this squad is that they don't give up. Last game it was Svet and SA, this time SA goes off for 39, against a much better team in the Monarchs, and on the road to boot. Any time you have a talent like Augustus, the game will generally be watchable, and when she's on...SA has the ability to put a team on her back. Minnesota took nine more shots than Sacramento, and made six of them. Combine that with Sac's inability to turn their overwhelming foul shot advantage into a real plus, and you've pretty much got the win figured.

The negatives: Noelle Quinn had eight assists, but eight turnovers. Considering Amber Jacobs had her shot at PG, it looks like we'll have to put up with Quinn the rest of the year. Nicole Ohlde once again disappears against better post talent. I am surprised that overall the Lynx have somewhat held their own rebounding-wise against other teams. Given Ohlde's soft play, moving Stansbury into the starting line up has paid dividends. Hopefully next year Ohlde will be someone else's marshmallow, while Stansbury could make a nice non-starting role player for the club, especially if she works on her free throw shooting.

While it's true the Lynx don't win unless SA has a monster game, this is another "credit where credit is due" victory. After the collapse last week again Washington, and the blowout loss against Phoenix, this team would have every reason to fold and play out the string. But finally being able to beat a team with a losing record at home, and then go on the road and beat a potential--if not slightly fading--championship contender, speaks volumes for their heart.

Saturday, July 28, 2007

Svet Equity

Let's discuss positives for a minute. How good has Svetlana Abrosimova been for the club this year? In fact, you could say that possibly they haven't used her enough. She's not the impact player they thought she'd be coming out of UConn, but given this abysmal season, when someone shines--even slightly--it's easy to notice. She deserves a ton of credit for keeping her focus and providing veteran leadership in a bad situation.

As for last night, it's great that the Lynx could beat ANY team the rest of the season. The Sparks are a shell of their former selves, and are continuing their descent to join the Lynx at the bottom of the standings. Unlike the Lynx however, it will probably be a short stay, since Lisa Leslie will potentially rejoin the team next season. Our team has a lot of work to do, and many holes to fill, starting with the front office, and working their way up to the players.

Saturday, July 21, 2007

Black Eye Friday

A bad day for basketball on Friday, both from a local and national perspective. The FBI's investigation into alleged game fixing by an NBA referee is bad enough on it's own merits, but will stimulate the rise of conspiracy theorists everywhere when a team loses or mysteriously comes back to cover the spread. At the Lynx game, you could hear the insinuations of the crowd as the referees called foul after foul on our club. It's hard to imagine a game where the opposition shoots 55 foul shots to our 15 at home and NOT suspect something was going on. However, I don't think anyone is all that interested in the point spread of WNBA games. Yeah, the refereeing was bad, but this second black eye was all on the Lynx, especially coach Zierden.

Zierden was over matched on Friday, as he has been most games during this horrendous slump. Once the Mystics decided to pressure the club with occasional full court presses and frequent half-court traps, the Lynx melted down faster than Chernobyl. He couldn't call a time out, make an adjustment or find a substitution pattern that would prevent the Lynx from committing 32 TURNOVERS. As the referees were ringing up fouls, allowing the Mystics to get back into the game with no time running off the clock, Zierden could not find a way to work the refs, either by a technical or other means. It was the most incompetent display of coaching I have seen ever at the professional level, men or women. I was trying to see Glen Taylor's reaction as the game changed from Lynx blowout to Mystics steal, but I think even he was stunned into speechlessness.

To be fair, the first half and initial part of the third quarter showed promise. The Lynx displayed a better ability to work inside-out and not depend primarily on long jump shots. Clearly however, when the opposition decides to show up and play defense, this team can't run a half court offense to save it's life. Once the easy transition buckets stop, and the jump shots don't fall, the Lynx become painful to watch. To see Amber Jacobs throw entry passes at people's feet was especially disappointing. Since the FO didn't try to pickup an accomplished veteran backup for Lindsey Harding, Amber and Noelle Quinn are it. Quinn failed miserably to break a press or a trap, and unfortunately Jacobs was even worse. No court awareness or leadership skills whatsoever. Usually a PG ideally is the extension of the coach, but given the coach, I would advise Amber to raise the bar. Her career depends on it.

Of course, everyone's concerned about Seimone. She again was an offensive marvel, but had 8 turnovers on her own, and by the time of her injury late in the 4th looked spent. It's tough to play 1 on 5 in a half court offense. I'll amend that a bit because
Abrosimova stepped up with 20 points, especially when SA went down. But SA makes tough shot after tough shot; this team doesn't make it easy for her to find a rhythm. By the fourth quarter, as in the Sun game, she was starting to disappear, then came the injury. The house of cards then started to cave.

This team has talent and a fair amount of feistiness. They hung in given the refereeing, poor coaching and their own lack of execution. Even with the meltdown, it wouldn't dissuade me from showing up to the TC and cheering the team on. It's clear however that the players and fans deserve better than what's been given them. We're now back at the same place when the Lynx were winless, and we were wondering if they were going to win any games at all. Tonight it's Phoenix, and while it looks like SA might play it will be interesting to see if the ladies can pick themselves up from such a poor showing and compete. This has to be wearing on them; black eyes are hard to hide.

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Offensive Measures

The biggest gap in last night's loss wasn't the score, it was the difference between two players--Seimone Augustus and Katie Douglas. During the game, the ESPN announcers frequently brought up the thought that many other players--and Seimone herself--believe she's the best offensive player in the league today. On natural talent alone, that's a good argument to make. However as we saw last night, it's when that offense is applied, and also the ability to play defense that wins games. SA has a ton of talent, and is a marvel to watch, but her inability to stop Douglas and/or score at the end of the game was crucial to the Lynx's defeat.

Of course, you can't play 1-on-5 in this league and expect to win many games. Zierden's offensive strategy seems to have three legs: transition scoring, pick and roll, and perimeter movement of the ball for a three point shot. This team--whether Harding is healthy or not--has extreme difficulty in a structured, half court offense. That could be simply because of youth, but I think it goes deeper. As a coach, Zierden is an able assistant, but seems unprepared to handle the demands of a head coaching position. To his credit, this team has generally played hard during the season, and last night on national television they displayed a good amount of grit; but they are woefully unprepared and disorganized. How many times this year have they come out of a time out on offense only to turn the ball over? Why does Seimone seem to disappear during stretches of the game? The problem with this team is that there are too many questions, and not enough answers.

From a stats perspective, they are holding their own in many categories. Last night they dominated the boards, which helped the ladies to stay in the game, and created many offensive opportunities in transition. They shot well from three point distance, and buckled down on defense enough in the second half to make the overall shooting percentage close enough. Tiffany Stansbury has shown an increased amount of aggressiveness in the paint, but only shot 50% at the free throw line. If you're going to be Shaq-like at the stripe, you had better finish well or draw fouls against the opposition's best post player. Given that all year I've been harping on the lack of low post acumen, Stansbury has been a welcome addition to the starting squad, but --like the rest of the team--is a work in progress.

In the final analysis, the Lynx were right there, positioned to steal one on the road. It was the ability of Douglas to take over the game--giving Whalen a nod for the assist--and the inability of our team to deal with it that lost the game. If Seimone is a true team player, she should take a few lessons from last night's game. Be an offensive machine when it counts, and don't forget about defense. With a little more tough mindedness--along with better coaching and talent--this team will truly be able to build around you.

Monday, July 16, 2007

At the Half....

While we are all hopefully enjoying our all-too-brief summer up in the hinterland, the Lynx have a lot of work ahead of them. People are making a fairly huge noise about Harding being out for the rest of the year, but the reality is that this injury has more of an impact on her career than the Lynx's season. Harding was having an up and down season at best, a struggle most rookies have in the beginning. We'll send a few positive waves her way and hope for a complete recovery in time for next year.

In her stead, it looks like Noelle Quinn and Amber Jacobs at the point. Quinn had nine assists in the last game before the All-Star break; it will be interesting to see how her style develops in the Zierden system. Jacobs will fill in when necessary; if I were her, this would be my last season here. It's pretty clear the team has no interest in developing her any further. I thought actually Amber would do a little better in the pros; coming out of BC, she had a decent shot and seemed to have excellent leadership qualities. Just like the men's game however, it usually takes a while for people to learn to play point guard at the pro level. it will be interesting to see where she lands next year, and whether she's with the club or not.

On the-beating-a-dead-horse front, I wonder if the same can be said for Nicole Ohlde. It's apparent she's not the answer in the front court, however the club has few options at this time. Ironically, this is a time when the team needs her the most. She can rescue an truly abysmal season by showing up and having a strong second half. The move to pair her off with Stansbury and bring Mann off the bench is decent, it takes some of the rebounding, low post pressure off Nicole. She needs to face the basket a little more, and let the game come to her. With Harding gone, I would run a few more plays for her to see if she's up to the challenge.

It's going to be tough no doubt; some amount of free tickets are being offered by the club to help maintain some semblance of attendance, there's not much buzz about the team right now. With their major acquisition now on the shelf, and no one waiting in the wings, it's time to look inward and see how mentally tough this team is.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

A Painful Loss

At one time, the Mystics and Lynx were on parallel paths. Both started out poorly and then began to have winning streaks to try and turn things back to respectability. With last night's loss, we've truly seen the fork in the road, with the Mystics continuing on the road to success, and the Lynx careening into the ditch. Adding insult to injury, Lindsey Harding sprained a knee and may be out for awhile. This was a truly painful loss.

The Lynx once again came out flat, and spent the entire game playing catch-up, with Augustus tying the score with under a minute left. However, they could manage only four points from Nicole Ohlde in the overtime, and came up empty.
Last night they teamed Stansbury with Olhde in the hope for a little more post presence, but it did no good. They simply haven't acquired or developed the depth to recover from any obstacles such as injuries or star players having off nights. There's no room for error on this club.

Harding has been shaky all year, but represents one less weapon in the arsenal for the Lynx to try and snap of out their doldrums, if she's injured for any length of time. The best thing you can say about the team now is that they have an opportunity to develop other players who can become part of the core rotation for next year, especially at PG, and should have
clearly seen enough that Olhde and Stansbury can't start for a playoff contending or championship club. The choice they made before the season started to not acquire more post help has come back to hurt them, big time. Their goal now should be to find those role players (Jacobs) or microwaves (Quinn, Murphy?) who they think will be able to contribute long term and develop--dare I say it--a blueprint for the future. Not some embarrassing marketing ploy, but a real one that will target players to help them where they need it most: the front court.

It would also help to find a veteran and accomplished coach who had a vision to compliment the blueprint, but that's a post for a different time.

Monday, July 9, 2007

"Houston...we have a problem"

I had my hopes up that this would not be the epic battle for last place, as I wrote about a couple of weeks earlier. But after a small victory run, the Lynx have lost four straight to indeed be the worst team in the Western Conference. They gave it the old college try against Sacremento at Williams Arena last Friday, but it's apparent that youth, the lack of a low post game, mediocre defense, inconsistent shooting, and poor depth are the rocks in the sack that's plummeting this team quickly to the bottom.

Houston shot more and made more than our ladies, dominated on the boards, and also had a decisive edge in the paint, where we have struggled all season. Nicole Ohlde was again a no show, especially on offense. Harding rebounded from a bad game on Friday but her shooting inconsistency and overall inability to run an offense (what little of it there is, outside of Augustus) continues to plague this club and forces them to be a primarily jump shooting team. If the shots fall, great, but as we saw last night when you jack up 13 three pointers and hit only two, you're asking for trouble, especially if that's one of your main offensive weapons.

It's time to regroup for this club and see what options they can develop for next year's squad. This time, they should understand the need for a superior low post presence, or trade for some accomplished parts. Vanessa Hayden's potential return next year will not be the decisive move they need to move up the ranks. They need to dump what they have in the front court and start over, and hope Harding develops and Augustus stays motivated enough to contribute to this team.

Wednesday, July 4, 2007

Reality Bites

I watched last night's game alongside some knowledgeable fans up in Section 130; moms bringing their daughters to watch the action. One in particular played high school hoops, and settled a first half discussion between my wife and I about whether the Lynx were going to come back and win the game. "I agree with your husband", she said, "no chance they're going to do it tonight". And so it came to pass.

Last night's game resembled the early Wolves expansion days, getting blown out early, then making a run to make the final score somewhat respectable. We saw a complete reversal from the last two games, and a slide back to where the club was a couple of weeks ago: low percentage field goal shooting, and very poor defense, especially in transition. This is the bane of all jump shooting teams; missed long shots that produce rebounds which lead to easy buckets for the opposition. The offensive strategy was poor from the beginning, jacking up three pointers in their first two possessions. If I were the coach--especially with a prized rookie point guard--I would have called time out early at that point, and mentored my star-to-be PG in the ways of running an offense. I think it's evident that Harding doesn't quite have the full command of running a pro team as of yet; Phoenix attacked the basket off those misses, and began their early run.

However, when they tried to go inside, there was no one who could deliver. Ohlde was awful last night. She had been playing seemingly more under control the last few games, but the way to get her off whatever game she does have is to put a body on her and get physical. Stansbury and Ress tried their best to provide some low post punch in the second half, but by that time the game was finished, even with the run.

Coach Z's dilemma is that if the jump shots aren't falling, it's a house of cards. They can't rely on their defense, their low post game is suspect at best, and they as of yet haven't developed anyone that can come off the bench on a consistent basis to microwave the team. Phoenix's Penny Taylor made the Lynx pay early, then Kelly Miller of Rochester HS fame made them pay middle to late. Miller was particularly aggressive throughout the game; she resembles the female athletes that came out East Germany in the 1950 and 60's, looking almost too ripped as compared to some of her teammates. Someone should tell her it's okay to change out the hair style as well; we're in the millennium now, it's only the social conservatives that wants to take us back to the 50's, not the WNBA.

It's disappointing when a team playing on essentially a holiday game at home comes out so flat, given they had some recent momentum going. I suppose the youth card will be played heavily the rest of this season, but I reject that wholeheartedly. Sure the jump shots won't fall some nights and mistakes will be made, but it was evident from the get-go that Phoenix came ready to play, and the Lynx didn't. Effort is something you can bring every night, especially for a decent crowd that bothered to show up last evening. People aren't stupid, and even though this is still a cheap ticket, there's lots of competition for the family dollar, so when they see a team going through the motions, how is that supposed to build a renewable fan base, especially after all the miscues of the Taylor organization? Minnesota fans love teams who at least play hard. Moms love teams who play hard, especially ones who've played the game. Watching the faces of the ones in Section 130 last night, they knew early that the team was mailing it in. Those are the fans this club can't disappoint.

Monday, July 2, 2007

Splitting the Weekend

Our ladies are showing signs of progress in the weekend split again San Antonio and Sacramento. They shot over 50 percent both games, and are at least holding their own in other team related categories, such as assists and rebounds. Yesterday's game at Sacramento was won by the Monarchs at the free throw line, hitting 20 of 24 at the stripe, in contrast to Minnesota's 7-11. Seimone Augustus continues to be the primary star, while Lindsay Harding had a good shooting night last night, going 7 for 12. Her assists to turnover ratio was poor last night however, with 4 assists and 4 turnovers. Amber Jacobs finally was used off the bench with significant minutes, dishing out 5 assists with only one turnover. While she only scored 4 points, this seems to be a good role for her as a veteran backup to Harding.

Both the Silver Stars and Monarchs are good teams; the Monarchs will be contending for a championship, while the Stars are a rung below them. Our club is still a primarily jump shooting team, but the shots are falling with more frequency, and teams are beginning to shoot a lower percentage against them. I can't say this is because the Lynx are actually playing better defense, but they are beginning to develop some chemistry.

I'm guessing the mid-season cut down might provide an opportunity to add/subtract a player, but the season is nearly half over, and they are who they are. At this point, barring a trade that would add significance to their front court, I would develop the pieces they do have and plan for next year, whether that's here or in another city. Give credit where credit is due; there's still a lot not to like in Coach Z's approach to the game and the front office decision making, but they hung in there with each other and are now beating or truly competing against some pretty good teams. Given the awful start, that's saying a lot.

Friday, June 29, 2007

Still KG After All These Years

Another draft gone by, full of bluster and spin, and little action. Garnett is still here; the impact of the swirling trade talk will have on team chemistry is unknown. Watching the different boards frantically and emotionally post every single rumor, along with their wild speculative trade ideas was fun for about a day. In the end, are we really any better? Like the last few years with this club, it's wait and see, which means usually not much progress has been made.

The Wolves waited until the 41st pick to address their biggest need, an inside banger. Richard is physical inside presence to be sure, but is a true project. Mostly, the club's front court--with the exceptions of Smith, Madsen and now possibly Richard--is still a soft bunch. Your true skill players--KG, Howard and Blount, would rather face the basket from 15 feet than go hard to the hole. Say what you want about the point guard position, until that dynamic gets fixed the Wolves will never again be a contending team. They might make the playoffs, but they never will truly contend.

Brewer will help defend the perimeter, and in a zone defense can permanently occupy the spot that KG occasionally did at the top of the zone. Big deal. With all the hand checking fouls going on these days, and guys like Tony Parker and Steve Nash penetrating the lane, what really helps a defense is a solid interior shot blocker with tenacity and intensity. I heard a lot of Noah dissing, but a guy like him would have helped fortify the defensive front court, and provided potential for offensive rebounding, which neither KG or Blount seem to want to do on a regular basis. If you couldn't get Oden or Horford, Noah was what the Wolves really needed, even if he ended up being a quality role player, because there's no one presently on the roster who plays that role.

As for KG staying or going, until the management changes, I don't think it matters. Listening to McHale once again last night reminds of us just how bad of a executive he is. At least on paper, who helped themselves the most last night? Probably Seattle and Portland, two competitors in our division. The Blazers got lucky in the draft, but in the space of two years
they took the challenge and rebuilt the team. The Sonics traded their superstar for a pick we wanted and now have two major building blocks--Durant and Green--to sell when they leave Seattle. As for us, there's a lot bluster and rumor, but in the end, we're watching our competition pass us by, while for what seems the one millionth time reading Sid's accounting of how the game has changed since he was involved with the Lakers back in the Ying dynasty.

If the majority of the buzz created is arguing over how top 10 protected our already dealt draft picks are in the next few years, something is drastically wrong.

Friday, June 22, 2007

Weathering the Storm

Sisters and brothers, I'm testifying to the sweetness of watching a star player execute in the clutch.

Can I get an amen?

Can we for one moment capture this moment and appreciate an athlete as she continues her brilliant emergence? It's easy for a player to be the leading scoring on a mediocre team with many inconsistent shooters, but you know you have something when that player can come down the court, put the game on her shoulders and hit the dagger. Along with Katie Smith, the Lynx now have had two star players who can finish a game. It's a trait not every superstar possesses--KG's inability to close being the prime example. I've said a lot about the Taylor organization's roster building acumen, but they usually get one player right. On the Wolves, it is/was(?) KG, on this team it's Augustus.

The loss to San Antonio was disappointing, but right now, the Silver Stars are a better team than Seattle. The Storm have issues, now being just ahead of the Lynx in the standings. As was pointed out in today's Star Tribune, the Lynx are learning how to win at home, an obvious prerequisite for success. While they continue to have their shooting and defensive struggles, they were able to produce 10 more shots than the Storm, and hit a higher percentage of free throws; those factors being crucial in last night's win.

With winning the last four out of five, where does this team go from here? They still have a long way to go. The recipe for success for this team will be how well it complements SA in a balanced team approach. Looking at some familiar themes in previous posts:

Sharing the ball:
Last night was a regression in sharing the ball with a low 12 assists.
In the last five games the Lynx have averaged 17.20 assists per game, as opposed to their season average 14.79. Harding took a lot of quick shots in this game, especially in the first half. It seemed as if she wanted to make a statement to Sue Bird, the Seattle star, who was an efficient 10 of 15. I guess the statement was: "I'm still an inconsistent rookie". Here's where I fault Zierden. When Harding was jacking up those shots, he should have told her to grab some bench. She was 2 of 7 in the first quarter, and didn't sit down until mid-way in the second. That's the perfect spot to bring in an experienced, pass-first PG to settle things down. You want your promising rookie to be up for the challenge of playing a star opponent, but not at the cost of team play. This ain't street ball.

The way the Lynx will win THIS YEAR is by distributing the basketball, getting balanced scoring, and complementing what SA will do most nights. The fact that Harding was able to grab 7 rebounds demonstrates that you don't have to score to contribute, especially at PG.

Pecking order:
Last night Zierden referred to Nicole Ohlde as the second best player on the club. Really? At the risk of making Marie's blood boil, here are Nicole's current stats:

21st in the league in rebounding
22nd in scoring
48th in field goal percentage
30th in blocks
25th in points/rebounds/assists average
45th in efficiency
1st in Fouls

Are those the stats of a second best player on any club? Not for a upper echelon team.

Ohlde got herself in foul trouble last night, and again showed her inability to finish in the paint, as well as contributing six turnovers.
I'll be fair; she's played better lately, which certainly has contributed to the team's success. She's improved in almost every statistical category her last five games. And, being the primary front court player on the team this year, it's welcome and needed progress. But you can't have that much gap between your first and second best players. It's putting too much pressure on Nicole to be in that role, especially when they can't compliment her with stronger front court players. I'm guessing what they really want is for Harding to be second in the order, but given her performance to date, it's probably a year away. Thus the continued contribution of Svet and others to provide some help or simply hope for the continued improvement in Nicole's play will be paramount.

Bench play:
Last night, Eshaya Murphy came off the bench to provide a spark, with 12 points. Bench scoring has been an issue; they need to find that 6th or 7th player to come in and be the microwave or defensive stoppers.

Intangibles:
Essentially, the Lynx have improved offensively, and while still struggling defensively, have begun to balance it out. The last five games they have improved their shooting percentage, free throw percentage and assists per game; they have averaged scoring two points more than the opposition per game, up from a deficit of 4.47 per game for the season. Overall, the team has dipped in it's team rebounding totals, so the front court issues continue. The strategy seems to be increase the number of shots, rebound as a team (three players had 7 last night), share the ball and find the balance, all the while putting the ball in SA's hands at crunch time.

The bottom line: As the Beatles once said: "It's getting better." Parity in the league has actually provided a ray of hope, playoff-wise; they are 3 games out of the last spot in the Western Conference. To even mention that a couple of weeks ago would have been heresy on my part. Unfortunately, the rotten start has them pushing a huge rock up the hill. But the progress will encourage me to plunk my dollars down to go to a game, or to watch the games when they're available, which I certainly would encourage everyone to do.

And, considering the continuing drama on the Wolves side of the court, this blip in productivity has been welcome indeed. You can only call Kevin McHale an idiot for so long.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

The Chronicles of Garnett

I've been listening to all the opinions regarding KG getting dealt. Chad Hartman is leaning toward the Boston deal, Dan Barreiro is not. Britt Robson was on MPR earlier this morning discussing the prospects; I find it very hilarious, since about two years ago he was boinking people off his blog if the subject was discussed. For someone as passionate of a KG backer as Britt is, I found his analysis to be rather objective. Good for him.

Then there are the boards, and the rumors; the people with "sources" who claim this or that person is in the know. I really do love this time of year, even though the facts are much of the speculation rarely turns into reality, especially in this town, with the front office we have. Not that anyone is particularly interested, here's my take:

Hartman's take was that probably this is the last decent shot at getting some value for KG, and that the 5th pick and Jefferson, in addition to our 7th, would represent a good start at rebuilding. He also mentioned that the Wolves would still need to enter the lottery a number of additional times to truly rebuild the team. That's where the rub is. We still owe two future number one's. It's going to be harder and harder to hold on to those draft choices, unless Boston gives us back the pick we gave up in that awful trade, or we can obtain another pick from somewhere else to compensate for the pick we will eventually gives the Clippers. This is how screwed up the Iron Ranger has made the organization. It is truly the rock and the hard place. Our ability to acquire talent through 2010 via draft is greatly compromised because of McHale's previous personnel moves. So, if we take that swing now and trade KG to the Celts, we'd better hit a home run with the 5th and 7th. I'm also not a huge Jefferson fan.

A trade for Phoenix talent would make more sense to me, but the fact is this whole situation is going to be very difficult. At this juncture, I would focus on keeping KG, let McHale limp off back to North Oaks, and go all out to find the best talent possible with a different VP (Hoiberg?). After his contract ends, we can offer him half of what he's making right now, and can get us by at least of the half of the draft IOU's we are committed to. Yeah, the chances are that we wouldn't get any value for him at age 33 or 34, because he would at that age simply cherry pick his way onto a contending team. But the facts are we can't even start over like other teams can, because we owe draft choices.

The saga continues...


Sunday, June 17, 2007

A Season Hangs on the Balance

What are we to make of this little streak? I have my tickets and a small party scheduled for the Houston game, where we were planning to cheer the ladies on to mediocrity. (Got to create drama where you can find it) Is the patience that has been asked for by the team during the abysmal start finally starting to pay off? Are we seeing signs of a balanced, savvy squad, sharing the ball and not assuming SA is simply going to go off for 25-30 a night? Is Lindsey Harding maturing? Has Nicole Ohlde started bulking up? Are they playing better defense?

So many questions, so few answers.

I think it's safe to say that the Lynx are starting to play to their potential, which is a middle of the road team. The Sparks--even after a three game win streak--are not the same team without Lisa Leslie and/or Chamique Holdsclaw. Plus, they were on the second night of a back to back. We played them tough with Holdsclaw last week at their house; without Holdsclaw and energy, it should have been a home game
win...and the Lynx came through with their second win in a row. However, I wouldn't bet the farm just yet that we're over the hump. You're not going to be an upper echelon team with players playing out of position--Kristen Mann at PF, for example. But Mann is a feisty lass, and proved it again last night.

The success of this team will be finding a consistent balance and developing trust within the core rotation. You can see it in the stats last night:22 assists vs. 11 for the Sparks. A number of players had good shooting nights last night, and to be fair, the Sparks defense wasn't great. But what I've seen over the last few games bodes well for the rest of the season. To compensate for this team's obvious weaknesses, playing as a unit, sharing the ball, and hitting shots when your star player decides to distribute the ball is paramount, because that's where the open looks and easy shots will be. Making the defense pay in overplaying the star is always a sweet and satisfying result of team play.

Augustus had five assists, second to Abrosimova's six. Harding had only three assists last night, but played under control, had no turnovers, and was 3 of 5 from the floor. A major key to this squad's continued development will be the emergence of another player OTHER than Harding or Ohlde. My choice would be Svet, but Kristen Mann's performance was, as mentioned, was excellent as well. Svet's all around game helps absorb some of the inconsistencies of the younger members of the team. She passes well, often rebounds better than Ohlde, and knows team defense.

After reading a few reactions to my comments about Harding's play in recent weeks, I am of two major opinions on the subject. First, when you have the number 1 selection overall, AND trade an accomplished front court player to obtain the pick, expectations are significantly for the individual. There's just no getting around that reality. Having said that, point guard is the most complicated position to play in hoops. On the men's side, Deron Williams (number 5 overall in the 2005 NBA draft) took his lumps for the Jazz in 05-06, and this year blossomed. But in a smart move, last off-season the Jazz added Derek Fisher to help stabilize that position. By contrast, what have our Lynx done? They gave the keys to Harding, threw her out in the middle of one of our many lakes, and essentially told her: see if you can swim to shore. Not only did they give up a front court player to get her, but they didn't acquire the equivalent of a Teresa Edwards (player, not coach) or allow Amber Jacobs any time to help stabilize the position.

Why?

The gamble must have been is that they felt Lindsey would have a short learning curve (being the number one, and coming from Duke), so the team wouldn't need a veteran to come in. A few games to get wet, and she'd be effortlessly butterflying her way to success, especially given the scoring dynamo next to her in Augustus. If this was indeed the case, I don't think it's panned out quite like what they thought. As a result, I think it's more than fair to criticize Harding when she plays poorly, but with the reality that the Lynx haven't exactly set her up for success. It may turn out well over a couple of seasons, but given this team is struggling in attendance every time a Minnesota alumni is NOT playing against them, and is only now starting to at least show a pulse, a short-term strategy not to kill the buzz would have been welcomed.

Being that their options are few, emphasizing a balanced approach is a sound strategy. Last night key stats--points in the paint, assists, and turnovers all went Minnesota's way. Overall rebounding went to the Sparks, but we led in defensive rebounding, which meant we were better --still not great--in limiting the Sparks to one shot. When you shoot as bad as the Sparks did last night, the potential for obtaining more offensive rebounds is greater. That the Sparks only led in this category by three means they gave up the ship early; by the second half, they were done.

The bottom line is that we are at least beginning to take advantage of favorable situations. What it doesn't mean is that we're truly on a roll...at least just yet. The Lynx are too young, too thin at key positions, and too inconsistent to make a run here. Just as the Chicago home and home series were early indicators of how awful the team was earlier, now we'll see if we can take success on the road against a decent San Antonio team, then back home against a Seattle team that cleaned our clocks last weekend. If they can win either of those two games, it might represent an actual growth spurt for this green squad. There's a lot of parity in the league right now, and at the end of next week a 4-10 or 5-9 record--considering their awful start--would be a major accomplishment for this group.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Sun Spotted and Trader Kevin

Let's talk about the ladies first. A nice win, though the shooting was poor throughout for both clubs. Free throws are what won it for the team, which is another good sign: the ability to get into the paint and draw fouls. Nicole Ohlde went 7-14 with 8 rebounds, a welcome sign. Both Lindsey's shot poorly last night, with 4 for 14 nights. To be fair, Ms. Whalen is having a tough overall shooting year as well, with a 35.1% average, similar to Harding's 31.1%. Being the provincial homers Minnesotans often are, I'm guessing most fans here would be defending Whalen; instead we can criticize Harding's struggles. Suffice it to say that one reason both teams are struggling at this point (no pun intended), is that both PG's are not playing up to snuff. Of course, the expectations are much higher in CT than Minny, but along with a strong front court, a championship team needs decent production at the 1. Connecticut has already been at the doorstep, while Minnesota has barely touched the first round. Judging by last night's performance, both teams have a long way to go, with the Lynx second to last in the pack. The July 8th game against Houston is looming large as the two worst clubs in the league will compete to see which one is the more truly inept.

Speaking of inept, Kevin McHale made a trade today, giving up point guard bust Mike James and raw Justin Reed for the aging, slightly over the hill Juwan Howard. This is a decent trade if Howard has anything left to give. He can come in and score in the front court when KG sits, he can also be a decent tandem with KG late in the game. The speculation is that the Wolves now will draft a swing man, but this would be a mistake. Our club still has no front court shot blocking save KG; I've read all the rips against Noah on other boards, but he would be the best player available for this club, considering all the club's needs. The addition of Noah would give them 6 bigs on the squad (if you count Smith a big), and allow them to interchange more effectively, considering that Mark Blount is a one dimensional player, and can't do anything but shoot and occasionally show on defense. Swing men are a dime a dozen in this league; we have the opportunity to fortify our front court. Let's hope the Iron Ranger doesn't screw this one up.



Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Oblivion's Edge

Is it any wonder why the television audience for the NBA Finals is shrinking? Between Tony Soprano and ugly basketball, people have better things to do than to watch games like Sunday and last night. I'm pretty old school about basketball, I could do without the loudmouth PA announcers, pyrotechnics, and endless hype regarding the game; just give me some good, tough, well played basketball, where some of the greatest athletes of the world actually rise to the occasion. This hasn't been one of those series. It's been all noise, flash and spin...and bad basketball.

James has been ordinary, and the supporting cast have played like boneheads, especially Drew Gooden and Anderson Varejao. Gooden had at least two silly fouls last night, fouling out when they needed him the most, while Varejao's idiotic desperate flip at the end of the game last night sunk the Cavs. Given the status of the Eastern Conference, and the youth of their core, the Cavs chances to come back in the next few years are substantial. Everyone--including Mike Brown, the Cavs OJT (on the job training) coach--should be able to learn from their mistakes. Get the brooms out--this year the Cavs are facing oblivion
.

Saturday, June 9, 2007

The Defense Rests

Last week, the magic number was 27.5%. That was our shooting percentage again NY. This weekend, it's 62.3% and 52.2, the game shooting percentages of the LA Sparks and Seattle Storm against our hapless Lynx ladies. Just as a low shooting percentage won't win you many games, neither will allowing a high shooting percentage. That the Lynx kept it close in LA and was in it to the end was the stuff of moral victories, but with the Seattle loss, it's just another indication of how far this club has to go before it can reach mere competence.

Let's start with the positives though; on offense, they are shooting and sharing better. I can only believe this is because of the insertion of Abrosimova and Raymond--when healthy--into the rotation. (Raymond was a DNP last night; I don't have any information on her status.) Though those two are huge disappointments in terms of being impact players, they play the game the right way, having come from a great UConn program. The increases are also a result of the team simply knowing each other better.

Consistent mid to high 40 percent shooting might get the job done--if your defense is sound. Here's where the rub is. To put it bluntly--we're terrible. The Lynx are the worst in the league in FG percentage allowed (49%), and second in points per game allowed (82.6 ppg).

The negatives continue to be overwhelming. Two key players on offense, Harding and Ohlde, are shooting in the mid 30's, percentage wise. That ranks them 53rd and 54th in the league in shooting percentage. Nicole is shooting 33% so far for the year.
For a post player, this is terrible. By comparison Christi Thomas--the Sparks center--is shooting 62.5% for the season. A small sampling of other front court players in the WNBA, as of Saturday, June 9th:

Tangela Smith/Phoenix -.425
Jessica Davenport/New York -.476
Margo Dydek/Connecticut - .450
Cheryl Ford/Detroit -.550
Swin Cash/Detroit - .563
Chasity Melvin/Chicago -.346
Michelle Snow/Houston -.594
Lauren Jackson/Seattle - .441
Janell Burse/Seattle - .474

The front office apparently made the determination before the season started that Ohlde would be THE front court go-to player, and team up with Augustus and Harding to be the "Big Three" on the squad. In the last few years they allowed Janell Burse and Adrian Williams to move to other teams. To date, this has proven to be a major front office error, especially with Burse, who has improved in Seattle.

Ohlde is second in scoring with 13.2 a game and third on the team in shots and minutes played with 112 and 260, respectively, as of 6/9, before the Seattle game. She's 54th in FG percentage, 24th in the league in rebounding and 51st in efficiency, for essentially the third wheel and primary front court player for the Lynx. The simple fact is that if a post player plays that many minutes and shoots that much the production and efficiency has to be better. She's been a career low to mid 40's percentage shooter, so I assume the thought is she'll get better as the team develops, but we've seen the same inconsistency and lack of development for three years. Much like the Wolves with Mark Blount, there seems to be a high level of cluelessness about the quality of bigs on Glen Taylor run basketball operations.

I'm not picking on Olhde personally. This is more about personnel management--what pieces a team needs to build a winner. Harding has also been very inconsistent. That she's a rookie and comes from a great basketball pedigree gives her some cover for now, but SA was beginning to rip up the league at this time in her rookie season. Last night Harding was 1 for 8 with only 3 assists in 26 minutes of play. As much as a winning team needs an effective front court, the point guard position is also key. Again, similar to the men's team, we invest heavily in a point guard who so far hasn't cut it. The difference between Mike James and Lindsey Harding is obviously Harding still has tremendous potential, while James is who he is.

The bottom line is here that objectively speaking, one would think a team with two overall league number one's and three team first round picks in their starting rotation would have more than one win, despite their youth. With one of the league's top scorers, you would think that one way to help a younger team build confidence is to focus on defense, developing the potential for easy baskets and transition scoring, especially from Augustus. She didn't have it going last night, which gave the Lynx no shot in the game whatsoever, especially after the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Playing
consistent quality team defense is more a matter of effort than talent. That the Lynx coaching staff is not able to coax any swagger out of this team--given the college programs they've come from--speaks louder than anything I could write or say.

Thursday, June 7, 2007

Spurs bludgeon their way to title

Are the Spurs a dirty team? Yes. Are they a great organization? Yes. Can these two values co-exist? Yes. This will be an interesting series for awhile, but I'm picking the Spurs to win, in four or five games.

I've been pretty mediocre in my NBA predictions this year; I'm a much better after the fact second guesser, like most fans. But given the mythic rise of King James this year a couple of issues will be particularly fascinating to watch:

Fouling. Last year, the complaint from the Mavs was that all you had to do was breathe on D-Wade, and he would go to the stripe. Given the "star" factor, how much punishment will the refs allow Lebron to take? You know Bowen and/or Horry will trip, whip or knee James at some time during the series. Given the controversies in these playoffs, it will be up to the refs to establish their boundaries quickly in the first game.

Supporting cast. Can Daniel Gibson lead the supporting cast again for the Cavs? While Billups tried to muscle him down low, Tony Parker will try to draw fouls by using his quickness to penetrate and score. If Gibson, or Hughes can't slow Parker down, or keep from fouling him, Parker will have a field day getting to the line, or finishing. There may be a lot of bench grabbing for those two, thus potentially negating Gibson's contribution on offense.

Defense vs. Defense. As has been pointed out in other blogs, the Cavs play very good "D", but are pretty combustible emotionally, while the Spurs seemingly are able to keep their cool in most situations. Even when they lost it (re:Horry) they benefited from the situation. Drew Gooden is making the transition from bonehead to solid player, but would be my pick as "the
player most likely to get technicals" in this series. Can the Cavs keep their defensive focus?

I think the conventional wisdom is pretty true in the case: Lebron is going to have to be special, and even more consistent than he was against the Pistons. The Pistons were ready to be beaten, it turns out, and James--with ample help from Gibson and others--rose to the occasion. I think the Spurs can kick it into gears the Cavs don't have, especially when the going gets tough.

Just watch out for those knees, trips and shoves, especially off the ball and away from the action. Somebody might get hurt, or suspended.


Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Lynx Win! Lynx Win! Lynx Win!

Finally, something to cheer about. A win, on national television to boot...well, kind of. The Women's CWS softball game on ESPN2 cut into the first half rather significantly, so I missed some of Nicole Ohlde's re-emergence as a post player, and the ample early scoring by the rest of the team. How did the scoring drought end?

1. The ball movement was better, and the team shared the rock. I saw semblances of a real offense, where the ball actually moved from side to side, and from low post back to high post for open looks. For the night the ladies had only 12 assists, but I could see some real effort to properly space the floor and make each other better, which led to...

2. Better shot selection. It seemed as if the shots were more in rhythm, especially Harding's. She would come off a screen, and knock down the 18 foot shot. The Mercury's coach, Paul Westhead, was heard telling the defender to get under the screen. Shades of Terrell Brandon! I guess that's why he's considered an offensive, not defensive, genius. Going under the pick usually gives the shooter all the spacing he/she needs, and last night Harding took advantage of that. As I mentioned Ohlde actually made some shots close to the basket, but by the second half when the game tightened considerably, she was back to getting her shot blocked in the paint. Ripping her ability to finish has been a constant in this blog, but she needs to keep the ball higher above her torso and use her height to better advantage when moving toward the basket. She gets the ball stripped and her shot blocked way too easy down low. She has decent quickness to the hoop, and it's been extremely frustrating to see her make a pretty move only to see the finish rejected, bricked, or stripped. Last night was hopeful.

3. Phoenix's defense. Have to give credit where credit's due, unfortunately. It's pretty clear that the Mercury's defense was horrible, and that they took the Lynx for granted until it was too late. Most of the teams the Lynx have played came out with a lot of energy, and right away began attacking SA with double teams. Having not seen much of the first half, it's hard to say what happened, but until Phoenix made their run, their energy was pretty low. We might have simply snuck up on them.

Still, a great win for the ladies. Kind of throws out the whole "first win pool". Leave it up to the Minnesota teams to ruin another great marketing idea. But now that the first one is taken care of, it will be interesting to see how they follow up. Hope, anyone?






Sunday, June 3, 2007

Exercises in Futility

I watched most of the game today on NBA TV, and it was awful. The team didn't score it's first field goal until there was 2:35 left in the first quarter. In the first half, they shot 21 percent. They ramped it up the second half, finishing at 31.5 percent. I'm not sure this can be said any other way: Coach Zierden is incompetent.

Why are the Lynx shooting such a poor percentage? Once again, they have to work very hard to create shots; there's no sense of sharing the ball whatsoever. Whether or not that indicates youth or poor chemistry, this team doesn't pass the rock. In the first half, they had only two assists. Two. They did better in the second half, with a total of nine, but it's clear they have no strategy other than to isolate or attempt to free up Augustus via screens and let her go to work. All the Sky did was trap and double team her to get the ball out of her hands, and they were sunk. Their other strategy is trying to use Harding's speed in the transition game, before the defense sets. The issue with that is of course, is that while the Lynx actually out rebounded Chicago, the Sky dominated the offensive rebounding stats, especially in the first half. You can't start a break if you don't have the ball. There are no easy baskets whatsoever in this offense.

Right now, Harding seems way over matched in trying to run what semblance of offense there actually is. I'll give her credit; she's taking her lumps like a true professional, but I don't understand the force feeding. It's not like she's the female second coming of Stephon Marbury, or Chris Paul. How exactly is she being setup for success?

At the risk of being extremely repetitive, the primary problem is in the front court. Ms. Ohlde's stats are deceiving; she is absolutely the worst low post presence--male or female--I've ever seen. The Sky let her off the hook by continually fouling her, and in the second half she was able to finally convert from the field, but as I've mentioned before, she needs to play the high post. She simply has no feel, touch or strength around the basket. It's embarrassing to watch her flail at the basket from 3 feet away in traffic. At least she hits her free throws. We've seen this now for three years running. McCarville is taking up space on the Liberty bench. We can't make some sort of trade for her or another who can play effectively with their back to the basket?

The Taylor group is missing a great marketing opportunity with this poor start. They should create a pool for fans to try and pick the first win for this club. At this point, have a sense of humor about
it, for Jim Pete's sake. You have to give the fans some fun in the middle of all this mess.