Evidence Based Basketball - Part 2

Continuing on from last post, the Wolves have put themselves in a pickle with the way they have begun this season, if you truly believe change is coming to Minnesota. With a 3-10 record, (a .231 winning percentage), they are on track to win 18-19 games. To reach the level where most dedicated fans, bloggers and MSM thought they were going to be--somewhere between 30-36 wins--they are going to have to win at around a .400 (28-41) or .500 (35-34) pace in their last 69 games. Not impossible by any stretch of the imagination, but my contention is that there's no evidence that they can or will perform at that level.

Tonight's game with OKC notwithstanding, the Wolves are one win ahead of the 07-08 pace; they were 2-11 on exactly this date last year. They went 20-49 the remainder of last season, roughly a .290 winning percentage. We were sold at the time that one primary reason why they were losing was Randy Foye's injury. If one immedately jumps to 1/29/08--the first game Foye was back in the rotation--the Wolves finished the remaining 38 games 14-24, a .368 winning percentage. Fast forward to the present, with Foye healthy and getting major minutes in the rotation, the Wolves are losing at a similar rate to last year. In fact, what is advertised to be the core of this team really isn't much different than '07-'08. It would suggest that as a long-term solution to the Wolves' problem--Foye ain't it.

This dilemma parallels the current economic crisis we're in, as well as the two approaches offered by our Presidential candidates in the recent election. Either Vice President McHale can tell us that the fundamentals of the franchise are sound, or he can concoct a personnel or coaching stimulus package to jolt the fortunes of the team. He can hope that one or more of his existing "core" (probably someone other than Big Al) dramatically improves their game(s), then continue to add talent primarily via the draft, or he can attempt to change the dynamic by adding or subtracting players or coaches.

If McHale "stays the course", and keeps the team's nucleus and coaching staff in place, there's little evidence to suggest that they will substantially improve. The previous McHale draft choices the last four years--McCants, Foye, Brewer, Smith, Richard, and now Love--have failed to add anything other than mediocrity to the franchise. Brewer and Love can still be considered projects, but the others--particularly McCants and the now departed Richard--have made little positive impact on the team. In Rashad's case particularly, he's approaching "Mini-JR" status; with his selfish, brooding, turnover prone game, he's a growing cancer on this roster. With neither the handle or the mindset to play anything but the "microwave" role, he could be considered one of the Iron Ranger's biggest draft mistakes--right alongside William Avery and Ndudi Ebi.

Jolting the team via coaching change has already been tried, but it's an inevitable tool to be used if the Wolves continue to lose at their current rate. Even though the evidence clearly suggests the main problem is at the strategy and talent acquisition level, Glen Taylor, not Kevin McHale, would need to step in and provide the stimulus jolt. Considering the enormous investment in the current strategy--undersized front court, struggling point guard play, poor defense--for him to step back and actually admit failure at this time and make the systemic changes needed to reverse the franchise fortunes would be remarkable indeed.

The evidence just isn't there...yet.

Evidence Based Basketball

(AP Photo/Jim Mone)

Question: How can a team that shoots 23 more times than the opposition, out rebounds them by 13 (with a staggering 21 to 3 offensive rebound edge), has seven more assists, and hits three more three pointers actually LOSE the game? To a team on the back-end of a two game swing no less? At home. Bueller...anyone?

Answer: when you're the supposedly progressing Minnesota Timberwolves.

As they lurch into December, we're getting closer to the time--on a normal, impatient NBA team--that plug pulling would be necessary. Of course, this is not true with the Wolves. Having watched recordings of all President 43's speeches and campaign appearances, admitting front office mistakes and re-crafting strategy is not part of their operation.

We've already seen two teams--OKC (a team that played much better against the Suns, BTW), and Washington--fire coaches who are decidedly much more accomplished than our current sideline leader. Of course, we've already employed that strategy, having burned through three head coaches (if you count McHale himself) in the last four years. Could Wittman be the fourth? An optimist could say, however, that we have more wins than the Thunder or Wizards. If we win against Oklahoma on Friday(certainly not a given), we will have a winning record in our last five games, which considering the 1-8 start, is a sign of progress, considering two of those wins were against "quality" opponents (Philly, Detroit). After a rough start, we still could hit the 30-35 win stride most thought we would be at this year.

Even though I thought progress was supposed to be measured against last year, and not just the fact they're slightly less awful in the last few games than the first eight... point taken.

As they say on those countless CSI shows, we should look at the evidence. What has really changed from last year? I would argue that the Wolves have changed only incrementally--possibly bordering on excrementally--at best. Right now, the Wolves are on track to win 18-19 games, with their 3-10 start, and .231 winning percentage. Given the "improvement" in the last four games, if they play around .500 ball their remaining 69 games (35-34) they will be at 38 wins, which would be just about the plateau for the Iron Ranger to hang a "Mission Accomplished" banner at Target Center. Bloggers everywhere would be celebrating, given their improved salary cap situation, and the stockpiled draft choices they have coming up. If they go 28-41--around .400--they'll be at 31 wins, the low end of pre-season expectations. Die-hard fans would be cautiously optimistic.

Question: does anyone truly believe the Wolves will win at either of those percentages the rest of the season?

More to come...

"We Were Looking Ahead to Minnesota"

Photo by NBAE/Getty Images

(Useless Press Incorporated - Oklahoma City, OK, November 25, 2008)
Matt Barnes hit the winning shot with 21 seconds left in the fourth quarter, and the Phoenix Suns held on to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder 99-98, in Oklahoma City. The Suns, playing without Shaquille O'Neal, who was a DNP-Coach's Decision, were behind the majority of the game, playing lackluster ball until late in the fourth quarter.

"Between having no energy and holding Shaq back to rest, we were lucky to win", commented Suns coach Terry Porter. "I think we were looking ahead to Minnesota tomorrow, given the juggernaut they're assembling up there. Look what they did to the Pistons. Even though they took advantage of some pretty cold outside shooting last Sunday, I know they're thinking they've turned the corner, especially Randy Foye. As little as that team has won the last few years, I know I would be selling that if I were Kevin McHale and Randy Wittman. I was up there for a couple of years, so I know how McHale thinks."

Amare Stoudemire led the Suns with 22 points and 7 rebounds, going a +15 for the night. "Yeah, I might have been looking ahead to tomorrow night just a bit," said Stoudemire. "I heard about how the Wolves broadcasters keep saying Al Jefferson torched me last year, and that was the reason why they brought Shaq in. Hopefully, the big fella can go tomorrow night, but if he can't, I guess it's time to see if he can do it again. I've got tickets to First Avenue tomorrow, so I'd like to see--unlike tonight--if we could close them out before the fourth quarter. I like to at least catch part of the show."

Steve Nash,who had 15 assists along with 20 points, is also looking forward to tomorrow's game. "What can I say, it's close to Canada", Nash offered. "I can't wait to see if Randy Foye is for real, after his game against Detroit. I know a lot of fans up there are still upset they gave up Roy to get him, but maybe he's finally coming out. This should be fun."

The game will start at 6pm, Mountain Time, on Fox Sports Arizona.

It Must Be The Footwork

(Photo by Allen Einstein/NBAE via Getty Images)

(Useless Press Incorporated - Monday, November 24, 2008)
Minnesota showed superior footwork in pasting the Pistons 106-80, at the Palace in Auburn Hills, MI Sunday. While actual statements can't be verified, it was rumored by many in the locker room that some in the Wolves brain trust thought they hadn't seen such footwork since the Magic Johnson led Lakers of the 80's. Johnson, in Los Angeles, preparing for an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel Live tonight, could not be reached for comment.

That the Wolves--identified as perennial league doormats--could pick up their first road win against quality opposition, wasn't lost on the Detroit fans. "First no government bailout, then this", commented Beretta Axhandle, long time Pistons season ticket holder. "Maybe we should get Flip back", he continued, remembering former coach Flip Saunders, fired by the Pistons in the offseason. "Of course, the real problem are Sunday games. I see these guys partying all the time down in the bars Saturday night. They've been losing on Sundays a lot lately, and AI isn't much of a team leader yet."

Back in the Minnesota locker room, comparisons ran amok between the coaching staff and players celebrating their victory. The Wolves' Randy Foye, a much maligned, still developing point guard, broke out for 23 points and 14 assists, going a gaudy + 25 for the night. He immediately was compared to recent departed guard Chauncey Billups (Mr. Big Shot), now playing for Denver. Ryan Gomes--who scored 20 points with seven rebounds, a +16 for the night--was compared to Satch Sanders, the former Boston Celtic, a real "glue guy". Al Jefferson, (18 points, 8 rebounds, +25) who has already been compared to Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone in recent days by Wolves announcer (and Lynx assistant coach) Jim Petersen, was heard attempting to add Nate Thurmond, Willis Reed and Walt Bellamy to his resemblance list. One unnamed Timberwolf official put it this way: "until these guys actually turn the corner, we'd compare them to minor deities if we can sell tickets. Yeah, they stunk against Boston, but just like Senator McCain said in the last days before the election, we've got teams just where we want them. 3 and 9...hell no, we're STREAKING, having won 2 out of the last 3. In these poor economic times, any sign of hope is marketable. We've trying to lower the bar enough to make mediocrity palatable."

In a weekend where OKC Thunder head coach PJ Carlisemo was fired, and increased rumors about Reggie Theus' job in Sacremento are surfacing, the Detroit win gives Coach Randy Wittman a little breathing room. "Yeah, I know Dwayne Casey got fired for inconsistency. And honestly, between our terrible home game against Boston and our win tonight, what could be more inconsistent? But, I've been around here a long time, and folks know me here. Dwayne didn't have the benefit of being on the inside, so while he might have been the victim of a double standard, he DID have KG around. Of course, I did too and I couldn't do anything with him either. I think a few wins a month represents real progress. What's KG doing with his ring this year anyway, beside torching us and picking on the opposition's smaller players? Not much. People in the state know I have the REAL challenge ahead of me. I'll be fine."

The Wolves continue their streak against Phoenix on Wednesday at home, 7pm.

The Pretenders

(Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

Both Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone were embarrassed by Boston last night. As the broadcast of the Celtics trouncing our Woebegoners began, Chief Vindicator (and Lynx assistant coach) Jim Petersen immediately took pains to compare Al Jefferson to the two Hall of Fame centers, saying that Jefferson's footwork was the best he's seen since the Dream; the way Big Al tapped in his first basket reminded him of Moses Malone. In comparing Garnett and Al, I think I actually heard him say Jefferson was going to be in the Hall of Fame one day. I can't be sure I heard that statement correctly however; by that time I was in my kitchen vigorously working my martini shaker. I had a feeling I was going to need a sip or two to watch this "contest". As the game continued, I was correct. So much for comparisons.

It would be easy and I think even a tad classless to rip the Wolves, after all, given that they followed up their first win in November against Philly with such an awful, moribund, amateur, lifeless and confuzzled performance, the team must be beating themselves up. I mean, they dedicated an entire Don Overbeck commerical, hired Verne Troyer's stunt double to pose as a leprechaun, and were able to sucker an announced 19,000 plus into the Target Center, only to watch KG and the Celts waive to our club in their rear view mirror. Talk about your buzzkills! Yep, it would be easy and classless, so I'll do it.

What exactly is it about the Wolves current brain trust that they can't see the damage they are inflicting on their own franchise? Is it the hubris of wealth, the promimently Republican leadership, midwestern stubborness, a combination of the three, or something else? When all is said and done, one day Glen Taylor will probably sell this team at a profit, even with the mounting losses he must be taking on right now. He can continue to sit in the front row at TC, smile, and tell anyone who will listen that while he's not happy with their season start, he has faith that things will turn out. It's the same words our owner's been saying now for years. And, you know, he's right, it WILL turn out...for Glen Taylor. Like a lot of other upper bracket capitalists in this economy, even in failure he'll get paid. At least Taylor is not asking for a bailout...yet.

By the time they get around to actually being successful, the only people left following the Wolves will be a bunch of bloggers (gamely, but incorrectly insisting Kevin Love is a fantastic player), purists who simply appreciate professional basketball at any cost, and the dance team. If you can't get a deal on a ticket, why would a casual fan show up? Last night, you can see when a team is assembled the right way--defense, then offense--how excellence is achieved. Sure, we all expected the Wolves not to make the playoffs this year, but they're regressing--not progressing. This team--night in, night out--can't guard anybody. Even when they traded for an above average low post player to replace Garnett, they're still a predominately jump shooting team who can't get decent shots when pressured. And, when the shooting percentage is .313...in Mafia terms, forget about it. Against quality teams, they can't generate enough defense to keep them in the game until they find some semblence of offense to steal a win.

If anyone thinks once again tanking this year to acquire a Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings in next year's draft is going to solve the problem, well, I have a couple of full price Wolves lower level tickets I'd like to sell you. Who says even if the Wolves COULD draft those players, they would? There's GOT to be another player that McHale will think is better that he'll draft--despite the "Council of Elders" approach they've got working now. At the core of this failure is the inability to assess talent and hire the right coach to implement a vision--any vision.

The one thing this club did right last night was not wait until the fourth quarter to lose the game. For those folks simply wanting to see KG once again in person, they could have left at the start of the fourth quarter, beaten any traffic home, or had a late dinner/nightcap at any one of several fine Warehouse District establishments. That's real consideration, in my book. How exactly is it that a team of veterans on the back end of a two game stint has more energy in the second half than the young'uns with a day off in-between their game? The mind boggles.

According to reports, the OKC Thunder have fired PJ Carlesimo, after their 1-12 start. Given their new location novelty, that team could sit on their hands, do nothing, and still have a great attendance year. Yet, they care enough about the club to see--after only a season or two--that PJ wasn't going to get it done. Even the Clippers are making moves, for Jim Pete's sake. Yet the Wolves--faced with the increasingly obvious evidence that this group is on a court to nowhere--are refusing to budge. They'd much rather spin at this point, and compare Jefferson to Hall of Fame centers, instead of building an environment where he could one day achieve that plateau.

That's the mark of pretenders, not contenders.

Philadelphia Freedom

(Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

For one night, the Wolves are free to celebrate an actual victory, having stayed tough against the 76ers 102-96 at Target Center. The post-game jubilation was not unlike the video clip of their very first franchise win against the Charles Barkley led Philly team 20 years ago, shown at halftime on FSN. It seemed as if the Sixers were content to try and win it in the last six or so minutes of the game, playing lethargically other than the first quarter where they jumped out to a double digit lead. But when you're 1-11 from the three point line, and only 15 of 23 from the free throw line, chances of a road victory--any road victory--are reduced. They came into Minnesota, thought it was going to be an easy win, and suffered the consequences.

The Wolves, on the other hand, did some nice things last night. Freed from having to play Rashad McCants any meaningful minutes (out with back spasms), they shared the ball very well with 29 assists. Craig Smith came off the bench with some great energy and scored 21 points, going 7-9 from the field. The fact he had zero rebounds was somewhat mitigated by his five assists.

In the fourth quarter, the club finally found Big Al, and in return Al found Mike Miller for a huge trey at the end of the game. Jefferson scored 8 points in the quarter, and seem determined to put the team on his back...as long as he could touch the ball. Miller had a nice overall game, with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 6 assists, and was able to play good enough defense not to be a liability at the end of that floor.

This club still is a mismatch of personnel; their two primary front court players (Jefferson, Love) play primarily at the same position, and are too small to play together consistently. For the night, the Sixers outrebounded the Wolves 40-33, and especially in the fourth, were able to drive to the hoop consistently. As has been pointed out in other blogs, adding Smith to the mix only makes them more susceptible to defensive breakdowns, where they have to aggressively double-team down in the block, only to have good teams swing the ball around for open looks on the perimeter. Because Brand had a bit of an off night (9-21 shooting), Dalumbert isn't a offensive force inside, and the Sixers weren't hitting their three point shots, the Wolves weren't exposed in this manner last night.

But small ball won't work consistently on this club. Overall team transition speed--especially in the front court--is mediocre at best, and would expose more of the club's weaknesses than play to their strengths. Furthermore, the NBA seems to being moving away from the D'Antoni-Nelson, glorified All Star game type of ball, where everyone runs and no one plays defense. If that's true, thank God. Save that type of junk for the D-League, college or European leagues. I love a good fastbreak, but let's play at both ends of the court please. Good defense can lead to great offense.

In the end--despite having to be told TWICE on the FSN broadcast about Jim Pete's appointment to the Lynx coaching staff--this win was one to savor, because there aren't many coming the Wolves way just yet...and the champs are coming to town on Friday.

Above Average?

"But give me a perennial contender over a magical season or two. I know this isn't the predominant view. I was one of the rare Target Center attendees who was very happy with the Saunders/Garnett tenure here." - Britt Robson, Secrets of the City

Ladies and gentlemen...I present your Lake Wobegon Timberwolves! Where, in this current professional sporting environment, leagues move franchises if cities don't pony up public financing for local arenas, increase ticket prices for even the most awful of teams, as well as charge full price for preseason games, above average performance--not championships--is the goal.

Of course, this begs a few questions:
1. Were the Timberwolves true contenders during the Garnett/Saunders years?
2. Would Garnett/Saunders themselves be content with their tenure in Minnesota?

In my view, the answers would be: Only one year, and, of course not.

3. Was it my imagination or was one of the reasons Garnett became increasingly dissatisfied with this franchise was its inability to truly compete for a title?
4. Why, after the Wolves fired him in 04-05, Saunders rejected a Milwaukee Bucks rebuilding offer to take a high risk, high reward coaching job with the Pistons?

The answers: it wasn't my imagination, and, the Pistons job offered him a better chance to win a ring.

Ultimately, if teams at the professional level don't consistently strive for excellence, they stagnate, and the great players--becoming increasingly concerned with their sporting legacy--look to achieve greatness elsewhere. In this small to mid market, where there are four professional teams competing for an increasingly expensive ticket, if teams can't legitimately compete for a title, they stagnate, and the fan base dwindles slowly over time.

This doesn't mean they have to win it all. Utah is a great example. During the Malone/Stockton years, they were at the doorstep, but never won. Now they have retooled, and again are in the mix in the competetive Western Conference. Despite being the only major league team in their market, they haven't taken themselves--or their fans--for granted. With so much riding on professional franchises--tax revenue, public subsidies, the surrounding businesses who depend on the fan base for increased patronage and profits--is it too much to ask that our teams strive to perform to the highest level, and be judged on the result?

Any standard lower than that seems rather D-League to me.

Groundhog Day or Space Jam?

In only nine games, this is what the Wolves season has been reduced to, a discussion about which movie is analogous to their awful 1-8 start. Given the similarities in a majority of the losses, in which the Wolves hold decent leads, only to wither in the clutch, Coach Wittman has offered the 1993 movie Groundhog Day with Bill Murray as their model for futility. Ever the contrarian, I respectfully disagree. Another Bill Murray movie--Space Jam--would be my pick. Why? Two reasons:

1) I truly believe aliens have stolen the basketball souls of our players.
2) Only Michael Jordan could save us now.

By the end of their game against Phoenix on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (11/26), the chances our club will be 1-12 are excellent. Looking on the bright side of life, we do have a great opportunity to once again matchup against our hated bottom dwellers--the OKC Thunder--in a 11/28 road battle to determine which team is the absolute worst in the league. Thankfully, there ARE other options that holiday weekend--Ike Reilly at First Avenue on Wednesday (for charity), and a prime repeat of the Ghost Whisperer on Friday (7:00 pm, your local CBS station). Given the dwindling crowds at Target Center, and the miniscule ratings the Wolves are currently pulling in on our local television outlets, the chances of a basketball fan "Wolves opt-out" are substantial.

Of course, a true fan might look at the Wolves ongoing dilemma as a continuing prime-time soap opera, a basketball version of ABC's Desperate Housewives. Call it Desperate Franchise, the story about an owner and his struggling team trying to gain respect in an elite league of sporting excellence, fame and wealth. Maybe we oould convince Eva Longoria Parker to join the show, in the hopes her husband wouldn't again torch us for 55 points.

Since there's no crying in basketball--for the players or the fans--humor is our only defense when witnessing a debacle of this proportion. On the other hand, there's also prayer...

From Good to Awful

"Greatness is not a function of circumstance; it is clearly a matter of conscious choice."
Jim Collins, From Good to Great

Earlier in this decade, the Wolves were good. They wanted to be great, and had a great player in Garnett, but never, as a team achieved greatness. Now, with KG gone and the team plummeting, fans are wondering: where did the Wolves go wrong? What can be done?

Mind you, I'm not the biggest fan of all these trendy business philosophy books. Given the Wolves 1-6 start however, it may be time to look past the stats and the on-court issues to the core organizational philosophies that have created this losing brand in the first place. I realize Glen Taylor is a successful, wealthy businessman. He doesn't need some full figured, five figure, anonymous figure to tell him how to be a successful sports executive. That would be presumptuous. But why not at least compare some core tenets of one of the more popular--and adopted--business tomes of our time to the current abyss known as the Wolves basketball organization:

1. Whether someone is the right person has more to do with character and innate capabilities than specific knowledge, skills or experience.

For years, we've been hearing folks like Kevin McHale and Jim Petersen tell everyone how knowledgeable they are about basketball. Petersen particularly during Wolves broadcasts has droned on about his own insider status, the fact he's played the game, the fact that McHale is one of the greatest players of our time. Okay, point taken. I would humbly reply that the list of great players who have mediocre to poor sports executives is long and deep. Isiah Thomas, Michael Jordan, Wes Unseld, Willis Reed, Elgin Baylor...I could go on. The principle here is that superior basketball knowledge alone is not enough to be a great sports executive, there are many other skills a person needs to be successful once they step off the hardwood.

2. Every good-to-great company had “Level 5” leadership during pivotal transition years, where Level 1 is a Highly Capable Individual, Level 2 is a Contributing Team Member, Level 3 is the Competent Manager, Level 4 is an Effective Leader, and Level 5 is the Executive who builds enduring greatness through a paradoxical blend of personal humility and professional will.

Is Kevin McHale a Level 5 executive?

3. Level 5 leaders display a compelling modesty, are self-effacing and understated. In contrast, two thirds of the comparison companies had leaders with gargantuan personal egos that contributed to the demise or continued mediocrity of the company.

Uh, I think the answer to the above question would be....no. Humble would not be a trait to describe the Iron Ranger. He's pretty folksy about his arrogance, but it's still arrogance.

4. The Level 5 discovery is an empirical, not ideological, finding.

Here again, at some point, the facts speak for themselves. After some early success, and Forbes Magazine notwithstanding, Glen Taylor should face the reality that McHale's track record--especially in the last few years--is not improving, but decaying. His judgment, especially in personnel matters, has been poor, and has diminished the Wolves brand.

5. Good-to-great companies focus on what Not to do and what they should stop doing.

One could certainly argue that the Wolves have tried to change their "blueprint" in the last two years. They jettisoned the strategy of finding KG's side kick, then acquired and re-signed young talent thought to be the new core of this team, at reasonable prices. The problem is, most of that talent has proven to be pretty mediocre, a clear failure of personnel evaluation. The latest move, acquiring Kevin Love for OJ Mayo, gave the Wolves much needed salary cap relief, a veteran personnel overhaul, and someone who had potential to be both a decent addition and a fan favorite. Love has shown signs of being serviceable to good, and has been described as already the second best player by some in the Wolves community, the first of course being Big Al. On a 1-6 team, who cares? It's becoming clearer that they essentially play the same position: power forward. Mayo, on the other hand, is meeting all expectations, and has become a core piece of the Memphis team. This storyline has a long way to go before it's finished, but when you consider the other significant draft picks--McCants, Foye, Smith, Brewer--it's clear that a primary failure of this club is picking talent, especially when players like Josh Howard, Danny Granger, Brandon Roy, and now Mayo were left on the table.

6. Good-to-great management teams consist of people who debate vigorously in search of the best answers, yet who unify behind decisions, regardless of parochial interests.

Here's another example of where the Wolves organization could be changing, at least in terms of bring more people to the table. I would suggest however, that if McHale--or Glen Taylor--is the Level 5 unifier, that's where the problem might be. Parochial interests might be described as the "one of us", or "country club" syndrome. Are the Wolves vigorously in search of the best answers? Who debated the Foye for Roy decision, or even the Mayo for Love deal on draft day?

Last night's game against the Warriors is another indication of the futility of this franchise. Last year, despite the lack of defensive acumen, we were told by McHale and Petersen that what the team primarily needed was outside shooting. In the off-season, they acquired Mike Miller and declared they were going to be able to spread the floor with shooters like McCants, Foye and Miller to provide relief for Big Al in the front court. Yet in the fourth quarter, against a zone defense, the Wolves spread the floor with those players, but couldn't hit a shot OR find Al underneath. Rashad McCants was primarily culpable last night, missing two shots in the last 28 seconds of regulation, then losing Stephen Jackson on defense for a dagger three pointer in overtime. It should be clear to everyone by now that Shaddy isn't a clutch scorer, and a poor defender. Randy Foye, thought to be the point guard of the future, can't run the team in pressure situations. What's the use of having shooters if they can't score or distribute?

I suggested in another blog that the Wolves go with the flow and, since they can't play defense consistently, simply find a coach like Flip Saunders who could refine their offense and make them entertaining. I was half-joking of course; if you can't play defense in this league, you're not going to win consistently. They played better defense last night, but lack any sort of closing confidence to finish games. From talent evaluation to coaching selection and execution, the Wolves have not been able to develop any winning strategies. One could say it's bad luck, but again if you find the "good to great" philosophy credible, organizations make their own luck. Through all the roster changes, coaching replacements and blueprints for the future, there have been two constants: Glen Taylor and Kevin McHale. Once they were good, but now they're awful. It's time to recognize that real change--and a path to greatness--starts at the top.

A Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Haven't we seen this before? The Wolves lay an egg against a beatable opponent (Sunday's effort against OKC), then rebound with an entertaining yet futile effort against an elite, albeit struggling team. It's fitting that we are celebrating the 20 year anniversary of the franchise, because it's expansion time all over again, baby. Any thought the Wolves might just surprise a few folks and actually compete for a low seed playoff slot are being dashed quickly. Our club had no answer for Tony Parker, who scored 55 points, with 10 assists in San Antonio's 129-125 victory in double OT.

Right now, after four games, it's hard to be on the fence about this team. Those who have bitten into the "McHale can rebuild this club" apple will point to individual performances by Mike Miller, Kevin Love, Corey Brewer, Sebastian Telfair and Al Jefferson as reasons to keep hope alive. For anyone who's in that camp, shouldn't those players be the starting five right now?

For those in the "nothing's changed" camp, we can look at poster children Randy Foye and Rashad McCants, along with coach Randy Wittman and the incessant spin of the Wolves broadcast team. Let's start with the coach. Given Parker was insane the entire night, I would certainly buy into the argument that there might have been nothing anyone could have done to stop him. No Wolves point guard or Brewer could even slow him down. However, at key points of the game--especially at the end of the first OT, couldn't the coach have tried to double team him to get the ball out of his hands or--gasp--deny him the rock? The fact is that time and time again Wittman has no answer for what the other team is doing.

Then there's Foye and McCants. Foye has been awful this year, but despite having a better game against the Spurs, he made two crucial turnovers at the end of the fourth quarter to once again cast doubt that he will be a star or core role player for this team. And of course, we have Shaddy. Here's a guy with all the physical talent in the world, but as immature as anyone named J.R. Rider. Last night he played no defense and made little effort to move the ball around to other teammates, being content to immediately jack up shots when he touched the ball.

Blogs across the Wolves community have presented viewing these two players as an "either or" proposition, as in one should stay and one should go. I've said it before and will say it again: how about dealing the both of them? It would of course be another blow to McHale's reputation as a personnel evaluator to do so, but given they have Telfair signed and a decent backup in Kevin Ollie along with other offensive weapons, why not get those two out of here? Jamaal Tinsely would be a better point guard than Foye at this juncture, and he probably has a better arsenal of handguns for this concealed carry state. It's getting more obvious by the day that as long as Randy Wittman is coach here, McCants will continue to have a short leash. They both still have the label "potential" etched into their resumes, why not send them packing, while they still have value? In Portland and Indiana, I'm sure Brandon Roy and Danny Granger are so thankful they didn't get drafted by this club.

Then there's my favorite whipping folks--the Wolves broadcast crew. This bunch can't call a game or produce any media without spinning how great everyone in the organization is, from draft picks to front office, to coaches, to ballboys, to trainers, to themselves. Could we at least get back to an 8th seed playoff slot before the heavenly proclamation declaring excellence is produced? Jim Petersen better get a room with Kevin Love, because he hasn't show this much affection toward a front court player since Mark "Second Best" Blount left the team. If I were Big Al, I might actually be jealous.

Here's the deal: Love has some good instincts, but the Spurs, like the Wolves, are pretty much a half-court team. Where the rook has been exposed is when matched up against any big who can run the court. Love played well against Duncan in the first half, but strangely wasn't matched up with him when Timmy heated up in the second half. K-Love is showing himself to be a good weak side defender, for example, but to state that he and Jefferson are going to be "dominant, at both ends of the court", is a huge stretch, and has that desperate, oversold feel to it, like having told us Mark Blount is "the second best center in the Western Conference" a couple of years ago. To both Petersen and Pat Reusse, I would simply say let's wait and see, it's a long season.

So once again we have lines being drawn here; you can either be taken with efforts like last night, or you could take a step back and say--not unlike David Byrne--"same as it ever was". Because it's only four games, I remain a glass half full guy at this juncture, but I could certainly understand why fans would not want to support this team, until actual, un-spinnable progress is shown by the Wolves.

Change in Plans

Folks,

I'm taking my show on the road over to Canis Hoopus (www.canishoopus.com), at least for the time being. I'll be known as finewein, and we'll see what happens beyond that. If I have the time, I might use Hoops to do strictly women's and college bball--especially with the tournaments close, and my Marist women's team doing so well. And of course, I'll never forget about our Lynx team. Check me out over there, and hopefully I can a bit of levity and irreverence to their site.

"The Answer My Friend, is Souhan in the Wind..."

When it comes to the Wolves, Star Tribune columnist and Wolves Live commentator Jim Souhan is a modern day Sybil. In December, when the Star Tribune published a headline about the Wolves possibly being the worst team ever, he defended them both in print and on the next Wolves Live broadcast. Then after a stretch of particularly horrible games, Sunny Jim rips the club in the paper.

Excerpts from a 12/21 column:

"This team has a purpose. This losing, with any luck, will land the Wolves their choice of dynamic players in the next draft. And what else could matter for this team, other than landing a franchise player to pair with Al Jefferson?"

The Wolves trotted him out the next telecast to help defend the Wolves--in a tizzy over the "Worst Team Ever?" headline--after a rare win over Indiana.

Excerpts from a 1/7 column, written after a particular putrid Sunday effort against Dallas:
"It's been written here that the Wolves might as well lose a lot this year, to maximize their chance at the top draft pick -- but there is a difference between losing with purpose and losing all credibility.

It's been written here that a season spent developing young players can be healthy, but that assumed the Wolves would develop young players and win more than once a month, not implode."

Now, with the current modest improvement in the team, he's back on the airwaves, supporting the notiion that the trades the Wolves made in the off-season were GREAT for the club, kind of back to the original 12/21 premise.

Well, which is it? Is nine wins with a little hope more credible than four wins with none? What if the Wolves go off on a mini tear, and hurt their chances for a higher draft choice?

We all are happy the Wolves are winning more; one can only bitch about losing so much. I think it's important for the fans to have hope for the future. Consistency however--especially in the mainstream media (MSM)--is important. Just because you're getting an extra stipend from the organization you criticize in another venue doesn't make it right..or professional.

Sometimes on Sunday

I was going to title this post "Never on Sunday", based on the Wolves poor performance yesterday against the Nets. As history has proven, they have a hard time getting up for these "day-of-rest" contests.

Of course, they proceeded to win the game.

All along, I've been looking for signs of progress, and ranting that losing in and of itself is not a great teacher, stealing the line from George Karl. Yesterday was a good moment, a victory snatched from Nets team looking for answers and sliding into oblivion or in this case dissolvement, since pieces of their Big Three--Vince Carter, Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson--may well get dealt to other teams. Up until the last minutes of the game, Big Al was the only player to show up on the Wolves. His performance was stud-like, and has been noted both in the MSM and blogosphere, the defense was better as well.

The late contributions of Corey Brewer, Gerald Green and Ryan Gomes can't be overlooked. Richard Jefferson was a thorn in the Wolves side all day long, but Wittman finally got a clue and put the bigger Gomes on RJ and his production dropped considerably over the second half. Brewer and Green played opportunistically; they hustled and delivered at both ends of the court. Considering the Celtic blunders on Friday, this was the best way to respond, against a struggling team.

Now what?

More to come...

"How do I lose thee, let me count the ways..."

If Elizabeth Barrett Browning had been a basketball fan, I'm certain our Wolves would have challenged her muse.

From being again outclassed on Friday night after one quarter's effort against the Suns, to last night's Rocky Mountain futility, our club has lost about every way possible. I'm having a hard time keeping up--was last night a good loss or a bad loss? Watching Antoine Walker clang free throws, Al Jefferson get technicals, and Randy Wittman put his face in his hands is the stuff only a nihilist could love.They have proven beyond the shadow of a doubt that--at least for this organization--there is no order, no ethic, no meaning to their professional lives. As I have mentioned before, they simply have taken all the fun out of watching pro hoops.

We're almost at the halfway point of the season. What have we learned?

1) Jefferson needs to stay a power forward. This has been widely discussed and accepted among the fans, yet the Wolves stubbornly still play Big Al major minutes at the five.
2) McCants is a poser. Here's a guy who scores when it's easy, and talks big, but has proven time and time again he's someone you can't rely on. Too many fouls, too many misses when the game is on the line. He's a head case, pure and simple.
3) Telfair is a reliable backup. He will be our Jacque Vaughn, if ever we can find a better point guard.
4) Gomes is okay. I'm still on the fence with this guy, but his play in the last month has been one of the few bright spots for the club.
5) Smith can't start for this team. The only way he can start for an NBA club is if there's a dominant center playing with him. He's one of my favorites, but he's a smaller version of Big Al, and defensively puts the Wolves at a serious disadvantage. Plus, he still gets no love from the referees.
6) Wittman is not the coach for a developing team. He's part of the fraternity, and that's the problem.

That's it. Richard hasn't played enough, Green probably won't be with the club next year, Foye's still on the shelf and the veterans are interchangeable bench parts. We'll get a top three draft choice next year, but at this rate it will take YEARS to develop a winning combination, given the front office we currently have.

Meanwhile, the fans remaining on board with the club are showing signs of desperation. I've read suggestions to put McCants at the point, for example. How bad of an idea is that? One of the reasons why the Celtics are looking for a point guard to assist (no pun intended) young Rondo is the fact that Eddie House has to come off the bench and play distributor, instead of doing what he does best, which is shoot the ball. I would put Rashad in that same category. I'm advocating dealing him, but if he stays on the team, he's a scorer, plain and simple.

I'm also seeing a lot of statistical comparisons and analysis, as well as a lot of draft talk about up and coming college hopefuls. The loyalty and support this fan base has demonstrated for a moribund organization like the Wolves has been nothing short of remarkable. Folks, the Wolves don't deserve us. Get ready for the hard truth however: outside of taking our money to watch a game, they don't care about us. They have gone out of their way to demonstrate their knowledge of the game, and our lack of it. They've told us we should have enjoyed the days when they were winning more, instead of being dissatisfied with illegal, franchise crushing free agent signings, and an inability to surround KG with talent to go deeper in the playoffs. Not exactly the most fan friendly approach in the world, to be sure.

In short, they may be the most arrogant 5-34 team in the history of professional sports. An optimist would say there's no where to go but up, but that's the problem, we haven't seen any reason to be hopeful. That's the fun--and work--of rebuilding.

With or Without Youth

Two perspectives on youth:

Without freshmen guards Al Nolen and Blake Hoffarber, the Gophers don't win their game against Penn State yesterday. After watching Hoffarber knock down shots, and Nolen play defense and distribute the ball, I had the feeling that whatever success the Gophers have this year will be dependent on how well those two play. The three key seniors--McKenzie, Tollackson, and Coleman--had decent stat lines, but the critical plays belonged to the two youngsters.

Let's be clear: Penn State lost this game. They missed 7 of 8 free throws in crunch time, which would have put them over the top. Jamelle Cornley and Geary Claxton--PSU's two best players--were often men among boys, but didn't deliver when their team needed it. As good as the Gopher defense was, they couldn't seem to locate Danny Morrissey for most of the game, who like Hoffarber was knocking down threes. Penn State's offensive rebounding was the key to breaking open what had been a close game in the first half, and had created the prime opportunity for Penn State to win the game in the last seconds. This was a moral victory waiting to happen, but when the Nittany Lions stumbled, Nolen was there to seize the moment. He slid into the passing lane, intercepted the feed and got intentionally fouled as he was breaking away for the score. He was able to do what Penn State couldn't: knock down 3 of 4 critical free throws for the win.

As was repeated frequently throughout the last two broadcasts, Coach Smith doesn't trust freshmen. For Hoffarber and Nolen, he has recognized their skill level, put them in a position to maximize their talent, despite their inexperience. On the college level, it's where superior coaching makes all the difference in the world.

For the Wolves, their attempts to manage youth has been inept and disastrous, a buzzkill for the ages. After 36 games into the season, the Wolves are left with filling sections of their broadcasts with revised history snippets of analyst Jim Petersen's journeyman NBA career, instead of focusing on the team itself. Why? How many ways can one say they're terrible? There's no stabilizing force, no veteran or coach available who can provide a thread of continuity that would lead to progress.

Whatever fans felt about trading KG, what I've been to able to glean from all the postings and blogs is that most get the rebuilding concept. They are patient, willing to give the benefit of the doubt IF progress is demonstrated. That's the problem. What progress HAVE they demonstrated? What do they know that they didn't at the start of the season? They get blown out at Houston, show up for a half at San Antonio, only to have the Spurs finally awaken and put them out of their misery. All this after a win against Miami, where they finally demonstrate --for one game only--they MIGHT be able to the little things that win basketball games: defense, sharing the ball, creating opportunities for easy baskets. We've seen this all before.

The worst thing you can say about this club right now is that they've taken all the FUN out of watching. For example, as loathe as I am to say this, why not accept the fact they play lousy defense and put the scorers--primarily Gerald Green and Rashad McCants--together to try and outscore the other team? Or, don't worry about the nightly matchups, but establish a defined rotation where Jefferson will STAY at the four, and bring the two centers (Richard and Doleac) in for regular minutes? Make something fun for the fans, give them something to talk about, other than abject failure. Give us hope, don't expect that we will generate our own in the face of such incompetence.

The bottom line here: one organization has optimized their youth and made it a key to their success, the other hasn't and continues to use it as an excuse for the lack of progress. Win or lose with Tubby this year, we will be excited to watch the froshes play, because he has a plan and we can already see progress. With the Wolves, we're still waiting....for anything.

Today's Secret Word is....

ENDURE.

That's the word guest spin-meister Clyde Drexler used in the 2nd quarter of last night's game, while the Wolves were getting thoroughly toasted by the Rockets. Paraphrasing his message, we have the talent, but we'll have to simply ENDURE this stretch of basketball, while they learn how to play together.

Hmm...kind of like the University of Houston fans did during his coaching tenure, going 19-37. Drexler seems to be one of those NBA players whose obvious on court greatness can't translate to anything else basketball-related but an analyst stint for the local club. Can't coach, and obviously shaky on personnel issues.

Other moments we had to ENDURE from The Glide last night were in the pre-game chat with Jim Pete, mentioning something to the effect that if Petersen were playing now, he'd be one of the premier power forwards in the game today. And, the manly bit about how they would hang out together in their younger days, working out and taking care of their bodies. Last night's love fest between Petersen and Drexler certainly exercised my patience. Maybe THAT'S what happened to the club last night; they all went down to the local fitness club to work out with Jim and Clyde, and simply tuckered themselves out.

Coming off a win against a terrible Miami club, you'd think the Wolves would have hung in a little longer than they did last night, like, at least past the first few minutes of the game. The darling of the week--Rashad McCants--once again proved why he's not someone to be trusted with leadership or a prominent role on a winning basketball team. He's a quote machine to be sure, and by all accounts works hard, but micro-fracture surgery or not, it's time to deal this guy, before he loses all value. He needs veteran leadership around him to be successful, and to smooth out the steep inconsistencies in his game.

How can a young team who's last game was Tuesday come out with so little energy? The Rockets were beating the kids down on the court, getting whatever shot they wanted. Scola looked like a superstar against Jefferson. After 29 assists against the Heat, they had 13 last night, and got outrebounded by a huge margin. With all due respect to Drexler, we don't have much talent on this club, only spin and excuses. Glide's got it half right though, it is something we'll have to ENDURE.

Just Imagine...

A team...sluggish and down in the first half, able to use defense to create offense.

A team with limited talent...sharing the ball and looking for weaknesses in the defense.

A coach...able to make in-game adjustments and maintain a 10 person rotation.

A coach...able to use youth for success, not as an excuse.

A coach...despite acquiring a 9-22 roster, inspires hope in the face of adversity.

Hey!!! Stop dreaming! You know I'm talking about Tubby and the Gophers.

Northwestern, albeit feisty, is a bad team, but as has been pointed out by many already, they for the most part owned Dan Monson's teams. In watching victory last night, it was great to see the coach have enough resources to bring in Hoffarber to break the zone, then apply pressure at the half court to disrupt the Northwestern offense in the first half.

Even though the Gophs shot over 50 percent for the game, the game was closer than the final score.Two distressing factors: streaky offense and poor free throw shooting. Against superior opposition, those are items that Tubby will need to slow an opposition run, or stay in the game. Both Damien Johnson and Spencer Tollackson will have to do a much better job of converting free throws. As it happened last night, teams will not be afraid to hack at those folks in the paint, knowing they struggle from the stripe.

While Dan Coleman make get a look-see from NBA types, this team has primarily four year talent. No early departures, even for guys like Al Nolen, who has a chance to develop into a nice player, but is going to need a full tenure with Tubby to truly blossom into next level potential. This means their go-to players (Coleman, McKenzie) will be spotty, and not always come through in the clutch. But as I've mentioned in other posts, despite the obvious flaws, people will stick with this team despite the wins or losses, because they have a plan, play hard, AND play the right way. That's how rebuilding is done, both on the floor and with a dwindling fan base.

Onto Penn State!

Whopper Alert!!!

An e-mail I wrote this morning:
"Dear Mr. Zgoda,

Imagine my excitement this morning to read in the Strib that our Iron Ranger finally was acknowledging/accepting fault for assembling too young of a group to compete this year. "The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step" sort of thing.

But wait...pardon my remedial ability...but where does he actually say that he made a mistake? He says they should have won more games (not his fault there), they played terrible on Sunday (not his fault there), this is professional basketball, not a church league (stating the obvious, praise the Lord) and that if a veteran bunch lost this much, they wouldn't be as resilient as this young bunch (no blame there).

He goes on to say he's happy with Witt, and the usual trying to find a few good men out of this bunch

Where does he actually say anything resembling that he made a mistake in assembling this young of a team? Is there a direct quote you left off the article, or is this wishful thinking on either yours or the Strib's part?

The Wolves organization is like the Bush administration...some general acknowledgment of oops, but no specifics on any particular issue.

Thoughts?"

It's always good to get clarification from your local news organization.

Flip 2.0

The road to irrelevance continued through Target Center last night, as the Nuggets outclassed our feckless youth 118-107. As I was watching both the Pistons and the Celtics gear up for their rematch tonight as well as our team, I didn't get to hear all the comedy stylings of our television broadcast crew. The broadcasts on KSTC seem almost subdued as opposed to the endless spin-presented-as-analysis efforts on FSN North. If you combine the last couple of broadcasts with the MSM media reports in addition to the blogosphere however, I'm fascinated with where this train is headed.

In the last few days we've heard both the coach and Chief Vindicator Jim Petersen talk about the need for better jump shooters. In fact, during the Portland broadcast, Petersen went so far to say jump shooters are what we should be looking for in the offseason. Commenting in Britt Robson's blog, I worked myself into my usual lather (role playing only, I assure you...I am NOT a curmudgeon!). My reasoning? It seemed to me that what was being hinted at here was Flip 2.0: another team who valued perimeter play and scoring over the hard work of playing defense, sharing the ball and developing the tough mindedness that comes with those traits.

As we've seen with Flip teams, he knows how to win in the regular season--it's the playoffs where he's been exposed. I've often said he's the junior version of Don Nelson--another offensive genius who will win a ton of games, but has failed somewhat miserably to demonstrate that his brand of basketball succeeds in the second season. I thought the whole reason of trading KG and "rebuilding" (if that's what you can call it), was to develop the "smashmouth" style of ball: points in the paint, tough defense, etc. Since both Petersen and Wittman were soft, jump-shooting players back in the day, it seems that in the face of adversity (4-28 is the definition of adversity, isn't it?), people will go back to what they know and value the most.

Last night's game demonstrates why they are mistaken. Of all the assets the Wolves need right now, jump shooters are about 4th or 5th on the priority list.

Who was the difference maker last night? Yeah, Anthony and Iverson did their usual damage, but it was Anthony Carter--a guy who couldn't get regular playing time here--who stepped up and set the tempo for the Nuggets. A +17 in the stats last night, 7 of 9 from the field, with 11 assists, he initiated fast breaks, shared the ball, finished, and played tough defense. AC is a 39% percent career FG shooter, similar to Our Man Telfair, who is at .388 for his career. This year, AC is currently hitting FG's at a 53% clip. What has caused that dramatic improvement? My guess is the style of play. The Nuggets are an aggressive, shot blocking club. They create opportunities for transition buckets and easy scores, which improves shooting percentages. Last night, the Nuggets also had 30 assists, to the Wolves 21. Denver dominated the fast break point total, which again leads to point blank shots and higher FG%.

The Wolves--even with 21 assists last night--don't share the ball particularly well. They don't stop anyone on defense, and don't create opportunities for easy baskets. They have one player who scores well in the paint, but as with all the other young knuckleheads on our club, seemingly feel they have to take the team on their shoulders to win the game. You'll rarely see Jefferson pass the ball back out to reset his position; he goes through all these low post moves to score. It's often a beautiful thing to watch, but in the context of winning basketball, it's only one piece.

What's needed first on this club are players who understand the dynamics of winning basketball, not just jump shooters. When they have a team who can do the little things and make each other better, and are able to post a few wins as a result, trust builds. When trust builds, and you have solid team play, then you can go and add individual pieces that might improve the club's chances. We just got rid of two jump shooters -- Mark Blount and Ricky Davis. Those guys could score, but didn't do much else and weren't particularly good team players. (They ARE making a huge difference for the Heat aren't they?)

Cut it from any angle you wish and the general feeling still is obvious: losing sucks. No matter who's doing the talking--Owner, VP, Coach, Broadcaster, Columnist, Blogger or Fan--losing often brings out all the worst qualities in humans. Blame and finger pointing touch all aspects of the operation; players, coaches, strategy, acquisitions and probably even the quality of vendors at Target Center. As I've said before, rebuilding is hard work. But you can't lose your focus. The answers are out there, it just takes the right folks to understand what they are.

That's the primary problem.

I certainly would be more charitable in this rebuilding process if I were confident a real plan was in place. What I've seen so far is pretty distressing: a broadcaster who's been consistently wrong about personnel and trades still acting as mouthpiece for the club, a VP who will take general responsibility for the team's demise, but fails to acknowledge specific mistakes he's made during his tenure and seems doomed to repeat them, an owner who continues to permit these mistakes to happen.

So, when I hear about needing Flip 2.0, I just shake my head. When will these folks ever learn?

New Year's Losing Eve

The only thing more painful than viewing the Timberwolves on New Year's Eve was switching the dial to watch Dick Clark. On the other hand, he does have more tenacity and courage than our club. In both cases, there's some letting go to be done.

With dear Mr. Clark, it's time for him to walk away. Coming back from the stroke to broadcast one time was inspiring. Now, it's embarrassing. There's plenty of ways he can contribute to HIS broadcast without having to be a rotating anchor.

As for our club, if they weren't so bad, one might think they were tanking these games. What's remarkable about many of these losses is how quick it happens. We can see the bullet coming. For three quarters, they play good to mediocre against a bad Clippers club. Then late in the 3rd Cassell starts going to work, ably assisted by Maggette, Mobley and Kamman in the 4th, and voila, you have another loss. In the post game comments Wittman torches the guard play, but in truth the defense is as awful as the offense, and the coaching not much better. At 4-26, they stink.

However, a cynical fella at this point might be still be thinking, "Hmm...they did hold their best player out of games at the end of two straight seasons. Why not hold one of your top players out in the BEGINNING of the season, ensure yourself of a high draft choice, and make a little run at the end to build a little buzz..." No, that can't possibly true...can it? A little more specificity from our coach and front office might help to ease those suspicious nerves.

For example, we were told at the beginning of the year one primary goal was to find a few good men to build around--outside of Jefferson and Foye. After 30 games, I think it's safe to begin to evaluate our feckless youth, and establish a rotation that resembles being able to--in the words of the immortal Sweetwater Jones--separate the wheat from the chaff.

Happy New Year!!!